Tennessee's 4th congressional district carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and supported the Republican presidential nominee by a wide margin in 2024, producing a structural advantage that aligns with the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 92.5 percent. Incumbent Scott DesJarlais seeks renomination in the August 6, 2026 Republican primary amid a field that includes several challengers, while Democratic candidates such as Victoria Broderick face the same district boundaries redrawn in May 2026. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited crossover voting potential and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles. A significant scandal involving the eventual nominee, an unusually strong Democratic turnout surge in suburban Nashville portions of the district, or unforeseen primary disruption could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current positioning indicate these remain low-probability shifts before the November general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTN-04 House Election Winner
TN-04 House Election Winner
$37,987 Vol.
$37,987 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
$37,987 Vol.
$37,987 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
$19,445 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$18,541 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 4th congressional district carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and supported the Republican presidential nominee by a wide margin in 2024, producing a structural advantage that aligns with the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 92.5 percent. Incumbent Scott DesJarlais seeks renomination in the August 6, 2026 Republican primary amid a field that includes several challengers, while Democratic candidates such as Victoria Broderick face the same district boundaries redrawn in May 2026. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited crossover voting potential and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles. A significant scandal involving the eventual nominee, an unusually strong Democratic turnout surge in suburban Nashville portions of the district, or unforeseen primary disruption could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current positioning indicate these remain low-probability shifts before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$37,987Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 4th congressional district carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and supported the Republican presidential nominee by a wide margin in 2024, producing a structural advantage that aligns with the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 92.5 percent. Incumbent Scott DesJarlais seeks renomination in the August 6, 2026 Republican primary amid a field that includes several challengers, while Democratic candidates such as Victoria Broderick face the same district boundaries redrawn in May 2026. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited crossover voting potential and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles. A significant scandal involving the eventual nominee, an unusually strong Democratic turnout surge in suburban Nashville portions of the district, or unforeseen primary disruption could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current positioning indicate these remain low-probability shifts before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$37,987Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tennessee's 4th congressional district carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and supported the Republican presidential nominee by a wide margin in 2024, producing a structural advantage that aligns with the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 92.5 percent. Incumbent Scott DesJarlais seeks renomination in the August 6, 2026 Republican primary amid a field that includes several challengers, while Democratic candidates such as Victoria Broderick face the same district boundaries redrawn in May 2026. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited crossover voting potential and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles. A significant scandal involving the eventual nominee, an unusually strong Democratic turnout surge in suburban Nashville portions of the district, or unforeseen primary disruption could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current positioning indicate these remain low-probability shifts before the November general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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