Missouri’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean rooted in its rural and suburban voter base, consistent historical margins, and recent redistricting that was upheld by the state supreme court in March 2026. Incumbent Republican Mark Alford, who secured over 71 percent in the prior cycle, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic primary contenders remain fragmented with limited statewide infrastructure. These structural factors, alongside solid-R race ratings from major forecasters, underpin trader consensus on a Republican victory. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, unusually high opposition turnout in the November 3 general election, or further legal challenges to district lines, though such developments appear low-probability based on current patterns.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera MO-04
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera MO-04
$34,928 Vol.
$34,928 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
93%
Partito Democratico
7%
$34,928 Vol.
$34,928 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
$20,778 Vol.
93%
Partito Democratico
$14,150 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean rooted in its rural and suburban voter base, consistent historical margins, and recent redistricting that was upheld by the state supreme court in March 2026. Incumbent Republican Mark Alford, who secured over 71 percent in the prior cycle, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic primary contenders remain fragmented with limited statewide infrastructure. These structural factors, alongside solid-R race ratings from major forecasters, underpin trader consensus on a Republican victory. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, unusually high opposition turnout in the November 3 general election, or further legal challenges to district lines, though such developments appear low-probability based on current patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$34,928Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean rooted in its rural and suburban voter base, consistent historical margins, and recent redistricting that was upheld by the state supreme court in March 2026. Incumbent Republican Mark Alford, who secured over 71 percent in the prior cycle, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic primary contenders remain fragmented with limited statewide infrastructure. These structural factors, alongside solid-R race ratings from major forecasters, underpin trader consensus on a Republican victory. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, unusually high opposition turnout in the November 3 general election, or further legal challenges to district lines, though such developments appear low-probability based on current patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,928Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean rooted in its rural and suburban voter base, consistent historical margins, and recent redistricting that was upheld by the state supreme court in March 2026. Incumbent Republican Mark Alford, who secured over 71 percent in the prior cycle, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic primary contenders remain fragmented with limited statewide infrastructure. These structural factors, alongside solid-R race ratings from major forecasters, underpin trader consensus on a Republican victory. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, unusually high opposition turnout in the November 3 general election, or further legal challenges to district lines, though such developments appear low-probability based on current patterns.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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