The Republican Party holds an 84.5% implied probability in the KS-04 House race due to the district's R+12 partisan voter index and the strength of incumbent Ron Estes, who secured 65% in 2024. Estes filed for re-election ahead of the June 1, 2026, deadline alongside a limited Republican primary opponent, while multiple Democratic candidates entered a fragmented primary scheduled for August 4. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, consistent with its Wichita-centered electorate and lack of recent polling shifts or external events that would narrow the margin. Traders price in the historical base-rate advantages for incumbents in such districts ahead of the November 3 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoKS-04 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
KS-04 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
$31,373 Vol.
$31,373 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
84%
Partito Democratico
14%
$31,373 Vol.
$31,373 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
$18,649 Vol.
84%
Partito Democratico
$12,724 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds an 84.5% implied probability in the KS-04 House race due to the district's R+12 partisan voter index and the strength of incumbent Ron Estes, who secured 65% in 2024. Estes filed for re-election ahead of the June 1, 2026, deadline alongside a limited Republican primary opponent, while multiple Democratic candidates entered a fragmented primary scheduled for August 4. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, consistent with its Wichita-centered electorate and lack of recent polling shifts or external events that would narrow the margin. Traders price in the historical base-rate advantages for incumbents in such districts ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$31,373Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds an 84.5% implied probability in the KS-04 House race due to the district's R+12 partisan voter index and the strength of incumbent Ron Estes, who secured 65% in 2024. Estes filed for re-election ahead of the June 1, 2026, deadline alongside a limited Republican primary opponent, while multiple Democratic candidates entered a fragmented primary scheduled for August 4. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, consistent with its Wichita-centered electorate and lack of recent polling shifts or external events that would narrow the margin. Traders price in the historical base-rate advantages for incumbents in such districts ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,373Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican Party holds an 84.5% implied probability in the KS-04 House race due to the district's R+12 partisan voter index and the strength of incumbent Ron Estes, who secured 65% in 2024. Estes filed for re-election ahead of the June 1, 2026, deadline alongside a limited Republican primary opponent, while multiple Democratic candidates entered a fragmented primary scheduled for August 4. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, consistent with its Wichita-centered electorate and lack of recent polling shifts or external events that would narrow the margin. Traders price in the historical base-rate advantages for incumbents in such districts ahead of the November 3 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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