**The MT-01 race remains tightly contested in trader pricing because it is an open seat in a district with a modest Republican lean (prior incumbent Ryan Zinke won by roughly eight points in 2024) that features competitive Democratic strongholds in western Montana counties.** Aaron Flint secured the Republican nomination in the June 2 primary with Trump’s endorsement and a clear majority, while Sam Forstag edged out rivals on the Democratic side. Both nominees bring distinct profiles—Flint as a radio host and Forstag as a smokejumper and union leader—that align with different segments of the electorate. The even distribution across margin buckets reflects the absence of fresh polling or major campaign events since the primaries, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns, national midterm headwinds for the president’s party, and any late-cycle shifts in fundraising or endorsements that could widen or narrow the final spread.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMT-01 House Election Margin of Victory
MT-01 House Election Margin of Victory
Repubblicano 12%+ 38%
Repubblicano 6-9% 38%
Repubblicano 9-12% 37%
Repubblicano 3-6% 37%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano 12%+
38%
Repubblicano 9-12%
37%
Repubblicano 6-9%
38%
Repubblicano 3-6%
37%
Repubblicano 0-3%
37%
Democratico 0-3%
37%
Democratico 3-6%
37%
Democratico 6-9%
37%
Democratico 9-12%
37%
Democratico 12%+
37%
Repubblicano 12%+ 38%
Repubblicano 6-9% 38%
Repubblicano 9-12% 37%
Repubblicano 3-6% 37%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano 12%+
$0 Vol.
38%
Repubblicano 9-12%
$0 Vol.
37%
Repubblicano 6-9%
$0 Vol.
38%
Repubblicano 3-6%
$0 Vol.
37%
Repubblicano 0-3%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democratico 0-3%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democratico 3-6%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democratico 6-9%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democratico 9-12%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democratico 12%+
$0 Vol.
37%
The 2026 MT-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MT-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The MT-01 race remains tightly contested in trader pricing because it is an open seat in a district with a modest Republican lean (prior incumbent Ryan Zinke won by roughly eight points in 2024) that features competitive Democratic strongholds in western Montana counties.** Aaron Flint secured the Republican nomination in the June 2 primary with Trump’s endorsement and a clear majority, while Sam Forstag edged out rivals on the Democratic side. Both nominees bring distinct profiles—Flint as a radio host and Forstag as a smokejumper and union leader—that align with different segments of the electorate. The even distribution across margin buckets reflects the absence of fresh polling or major campaign events since the primaries, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns, national midterm headwinds for the president’s party, and any late-cycle shifts in fundraising or endorsements that could widen or narrow the final spread.
The 2026 MT-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MT-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MT-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 MT-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MT-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The MT-01 race remains tightly contested in trader pricing because it is an open seat in a district with a modest Republican lean (prior incumbent Ryan Zinke won by roughly eight points in 2024) that features competitive Democratic strongholds in western Montana counties.** Aaron Flint secured the Republican nomination in the June 2 primary with Trump’s endorsement and a clear majority, while Sam Forstag edged out rivals on the Democratic side. Both nominees bring distinct profiles—Flint as a radio host and Forstag as a smokejumper and union leader—that align with different segments of the electorate. The even distribution across margin buckets reflects the absence of fresh polling or major campaign events since the primaries, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns, national midterm headwinds for the president’s party, and any late-cycle shifts in fundraising or endorsements that could widen or narrow the final spread.
The 2026 MT-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MT-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MT-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The MT-01 race remains tightly contested in trader pricing because it is an open seat in a district with a modest Republican lean (prior incumbent Ryan Zinke won by roughly eight points in 2024) that features competitive Democratic strongholds in western Montana counties.** Aaron Flint secured the Republican nomination in the June 2 primary with Trump’s endorsement and a clear majority, while Sam Forstag edged out rivals on the Democratic side. Both nominees bring distinct profiles—Flint as a radio host and Forstag as a smokejumper and union leader—that align with different segments of the electorate. The even distribution across margin buckets reflects the absence of fresh polling or major campaign events since the primaries, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns, national midterm headwinds for the president’s party, and any late-cycle shifts in fundraising or endorsements that could widen or narrow the final spread.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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