Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Tom Cole secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with 71 percent of the vote and faces Democrat Mitchell Jacob and independent Rocco Bonacci in the November general election. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, underscoring limited crossover appeal for the Democratic nominee in this district. Traders assign the Republican Party a 94 percent implied probability based on these structural factors, historical voting patterns, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. A significant national partisan shift, unexpected personal or legal developments involving the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such outcomes remain low-probability events given the district's baseline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera OK-04
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera OK-04
$26,518 Vol.
$26,518 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
94%
Partito Democratico
6%
$26,518 Vol.
$26,518 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
$15,644 Vol.
94%
Partito Democratico
$10,874 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Tom Cole secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with 71 percent of the vote and faces Democrat Mitchell Jacob and independent Rocco Bonacci in the November general election. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, underscoring limited crossover appeal for the Democratic nominee in this district. Traders assign the Republican Party a 94 percent implied probability based on these structural factors, historical voting patterns, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. A significant national partisan shift, unexpected personal or legal developments involving the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such outcomes remain low-probability events given the district's baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$26,518Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Tom Cole secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with 71 percent of the vote and faces Democrat Mitchell Jacob and independent Rocco Bonacci in the November general election. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, underscoring limited crossover appeal for the Democratic nominee in this district. Traders assign the Republican Party a 94 percent implied probability based on these structural factors, historical voting patterns, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. A significant national partisan shift, unexpected personal or legal developments involving the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such outcomes remain low-probability events given the district's baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,518Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Tom Cole secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with 71 percent of the vote and faces Democrat Mitchell Jacob and independent Rocco Bonacci in the November general election. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, underscoring limited crossover appeal for the Democratic nominee in this district. Traders assign the Republican Party a 94 percent implied probability based on these structural factors, historical voting patterns, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. A significant national partisan shift, unexpected personal or legal developments involving the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such outcomes remain low-probability events given the district's baseline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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