Russia’s Supreme Court ruling in August 2026 removed Yabloko from the federal party-list ballot for the September 18–20 State Duma elections after a Rodina lawsuit cited copyright issues, campaign spending violations, and related claims, a decision upheld on appeal. This exclusion from the proportional representation system, which allocates half the seats to parties clearing the 5 percent threshold, drives the near-certain trader view that Yabloko will not qualify, consistent with its historical performance below that level amid restricted media access and documented administrative pressures. Some Yabloko candidates remain in single-mandate districts, but those races do not affect the nationwide party-list threshold. Late reversals via further appeals or procedural shifts before final results remain possible though improbable given the timeline and prior outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
<1% probabilità
$899,582 Vol.
$899,582 Vol.
20 set 2026
Sì
<1% probabilità
$899,582 Vol.
$899,582 Vol.
20 set 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia’s Supreme Court ruling in August 2026 removed Yabloko from the federal party-list ballot for the September 18–20 State Duma elections after a Rodina lawsuit cited copyright issues, campaign spending violations, and related claims, a decision upheld on appeal. This exclusion from the proportional representation system, which allocates half the seats to parties clearing the 5 percent threshold, drives the near-certain trader view that Yabloko will not qualify, consistent with its historical performance below that level amid restricted media access and documented administrative pressures. Some Yabloko candidates remain in single-mandate districts, but those races do not affect the nationwide party-list threshold. Late reversals via further appeals or procedural shifts before final results remain possible though improbable given the timeline and prior outcomes.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Mercato aperto: Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
Volume
$899,582Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia’s Supreme Court ruling in August 2026 removed Yabloko from the federal party-list ballot for the September 18–20 State Duma elections after a Rodina lawsuit cited copyright issues, campaign spending violations, and related claims, a decision upheld on appeal. This exclusion from the proportional representation system, which allocates half the seats to parties clearing the 5 percent threshold, drives the near-certain trader view that Yabloko will not qualify, consistent with its historical performance below that level amid restricted media access and documented administrative pressures. Some Yabloko candidates remain in single-mandate districts, but those races do not affect the nationwide party-list threshold. Late reversals via further appeals or procedural shifts before final results remain possible though improbable given the timeline and prior outcomes.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$899,582Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Russia’s Supreme Court ruling in August 2026 removed Yabloko from the federal party-list ballot for the September 18–20 State Duma elections after a Rodina lawsuit cited copyright issues, campaign spending violations, and related claims, a decision upheld on appeal. This exclusion from the proportional representation system, which allocates half the seats to parties clearing the 5 percent threshold, drives the near-certain trader view that Yabloko will not qualify, consistent with its historical performance below that level amid restricted media access and documented administrative pressures. Some Yabloko candidates remain in single-mandate districts, but those races do not affect the nationwide party-list threshold. Late reversals via further appeals or procedural shifts before final results remain possible though improbable given the timeline and prior outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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