Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a dominant 75.6% share against Republican Peter Soule, who secured the second spot at 10.8% in California's 16th congressional district. The race carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+25 and consistent "solid" or "safe" Democratic ratings from nonpartisan analysts, driven by heavy Democratic voter registration advantages and the district's recent election history. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 97.9% implied probability, reflecting these structural factors and the absence of competitive Republican challengers. A late scandal, significant health development, or national political realignment could still shift general election dynamics before November 3, though the margin makes such changes improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-16
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-16
$106,983 Vol.
$106,983 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
98%
Partito Repubblicano
2%
$106,983 Vol.
$106,983 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$52,842 Vol.
98%
Partito Repubblicano
$54,142 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a dominant 75.6% share against Republican Peter Soule, who secured the second spot at 10.8% in California's 16th congressional district. The race carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+25 and consistent "solid" or "safe" Democratic ratings from nonpartisan analysts, driven by heavy Democratic voter registration advantages and the district's recent election history. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 97.9% implied probability, reflecting these structural factors and the absence of competitive Republican challengers. A late scandal, significant health development, or national political realignment could still shift general election dynamics before November 3, though the margin makes such changes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$106,983Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a dominant 75.6% share against Republican Peter Soule, who secured the second spot at 10.8% in California's 16th congressional district. The race carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+25 and consistent "solid" or "safe" Democratic ratings from nonpartisan analysts, driven by heavy Democratic voter registration advantages and the district's recent election history. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 97.9% implied probability, reflecting these structural factors and the absence of competitive Republican challengers. A late scandal, significant health development, or national political realignment could still shift general election dynamics before November 3, though the margin makes such changes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$106,983Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a dominant 75.6% share against Republican Peter Soule, who secured the second spot at 10.8% in California's 16th congressional district. The race carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+25 and consistent "solid" or "safe" Democratic ratings from nonpartisan analysts, driven by heavy Democratic voter registration advantages and the district's recent election history. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 97.9% implied probability, reflecting these structural factors and the absence of competitive Republican challengers. A late scandal, significant health development, or national political realignment could still shift general election dynamics before November 3, though the margin makes such changes improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti