Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo secured a dominant 75% in the June 2026 top-two primary for California's 16th congressional district, advancing easily against Republican challengers. The seat carries a strong Democratic partisan baseline, reflected in D+25 Cook Partisan Voter Index scores, heavy 2024 presidential margins for Democrats, and voter registration patterns favoring the party by more than 35 points in key counties. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus on platforms like Polymarket aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive Republican momentum. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate withdrawal, or broad national realignment could still alter the outcome, though such shifts have limited precedent in comparable districts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-16
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-16
$106,983 Vol.
$106,983 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
98%
Partito Repubblicano
2%
$106,983 Vol.
$106,983 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$52,842 Vol.
98%
Partito Repubblicano
$54,142 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo secured a dominant 75% in the June 2026 top-two primary for California's 16th congressional district, advancing easily against Republican challengers. The seat carries a strong Democratic partisan baseline, reflected in D+25 Cook Partisan Voter Index scores, heavy 2024 presidential margins for Democrats, and voter registration patterns favoring the party by more than 35 points in key counties. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus on platforms like Polymarket aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive Republican momentum. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate withdrawal, or broad national realignment could still alter the outcome, though such shifts have limited precedent in comparable districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$106,983Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo secured a dominant 75% in the June 2026 top-two primary for California's 16th congressional district, advancing easily against Republican challengers. The seat carries a strong Democratic partisan baseline, reflected in D+25 Cook Partisan Voter Index scores, heavy 2024 presidential margins for Democrats, and voter registration patterns favoring the party by more than 35 points in key counties. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus on platforms like Polymarket aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive Republican momentum. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate withdrawal, or broad national realignment could still alter the outcome, though such shifts have limited precedent in comparable districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$106,983Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo secured a dominant 75% in the June 2026 top-two primary for California's 16th congressional district, advancing easily against Republican challengers. The seat carries a strong Democratic partisan baseline, reflected in D+25 Cook Partisan Voter Index scores, heavy 2024 presidential margins for Democrats, and voter registration patterns favoring the party by more than 35 points in key counties. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus on platforms like Polymarket aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive Republican momentum. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate withdrawal, or broad national realignment could still alter the outcome, though such shifts have limited precedent in comparable districts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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