Washington's 9th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 Partisan Voter Index and the incumbent's consistent victories, including a 66% margin in 2024. Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith advanced comfortably from the August 4, 2026, top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Doug Basler, with Cook Political Report rating the race Solid Democratic. Traders price the Democratic Party at 94.5% because the district's urban and suburban composition in the central Puget Sound area has produced reliable majorities for Democratic candidates across recent election cycles, reinforced by historical turnout patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a broad national wave favoring Republicans, an unforeseen personal or ethical issue affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican mobilization, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from established voting behavior in this district.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWA-09 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
WA-09 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
$28,307 Vol.
$28,307 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$28,307 Vol.
$28,307 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$10,751 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$17,556 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington's 9th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 Partisan Voter Index and the incumbent's consistent victories, including a 66% margin in 2024. Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith advanced comfortably from the August 4, 2026, top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Doug Basler, with Cook Political Report rating the race Solid Democratic. Traders price the Democratic Party at 94.5% because the district's urban and suburban composition in the central Puget Sound area has produced reliable majorities for Democratic candidates across recent election cycles, reinforced by historical turnout patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a broad national wave favoring Republicans, an unforeseen personal or ethical issue affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican mobilization, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from established voting behavior in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$28,307Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington's 9th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 Partisan Voter Index and the incumbent's consistent victories, including a 66% margin in 2024. Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith advanced comfortably from the August 4, 2026, top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Doug Basler, with Cook Political Report rating the race Solid Democratic. Traders price the Democratic Party at 94.5% because the district's urban and suburban composition in the central Puget Sound area has produced reliable majorities for Democratic candidates across recent election cycles, reinforced by historical turnout patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a broad national wave favoring Republicans, an unforeseen personal or ethical issue affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican mobilization, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from established voting behavior in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,307Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington's 9th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 Partisan Voter Index and the incumbent's consistent victories, including a 66% margin in 2024. Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith advanced comfortably from the August 4, 2026, top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Doug Basler, with Cook Political Report rating the race Solid Democratic. Traders price the Democratic Party at 94.5% because the district's urban and suburban composition in the central Puget Sound area has produced reliable majorities for Democratic candidates across recent election cycles, reinforced by historical turnout patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a broad national wave favoring Republicans, an unforeseen personal or ethical issue affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican mobilization, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from established voting behavior in this district.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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