Washington’s 9th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+22, making it one of the most Democratic seats in the country. Longtime incumbent Adam Smith, first elected in 1996, faces a top-two primary on August 4, 2026, against fellow Democrat Melissa Chaudhry, Republican Douglas Basler, and minor-party candidates before the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with Smith’s 2024 margin and the district’s consistent support for Democratic presidential candidates. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects this structural advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline. A credible challenge would require either an unanticipated primary upset, a significant scandal involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican national environment capable of overcoming the district’s partisan lean.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWA-09 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington’s 9th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+22, making it one of the most Democratic seats in the country. Longtime incumbent Adam Smith, first elected in 1996, faces a top-two primary on August 4, 2026, against fellow Democrat Melissa Chaudhry, Republican Douglas Basler, and minor-party candidates before the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with Smith’s 2024 margin and the district’s consistent support for Democratic presidential candidates. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects this structural advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline. A credible challenge would require either an unanticipated primary upset, a significant scandal involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican national environment capable of overcoming the district’s partisan lean.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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