Washington’s 9th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+22, making it one of the most Democratic seats in the country. Longtime incumbent Adam Smith, first elected in 1996, faces a top-two primary on August 4, 2026, against fellow Democrat Melissa Chaudhry, Republican Douglas Basler, and minor-party candidates before the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with Smith’s 2024 margin and the district’s consistent support for Democratic presidential candidates. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects this structural advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline. A credible challenge would require either an unanticipated primary upset, a significant scandal involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican national environment capable of overcoming the district’s partisan lean.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWA-09 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
WA-09 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$3,009 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$6,381 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 9th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+22, making it one of the most Democratic seats in the country. Longtime incumbent Adam Smith, first elected in 1996, faces a top-two primary on August 4, 2026, against fellow Democrat Melissa Chaudhry, Republican Douglas Basler, and minor-party candidates before the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with Smith’s 2024 margin and the district’s consistent support for Democratic presidential candidates. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects this structural advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline. A credible challenge would require either an unanticipated primary upset, a significant scandal involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican national environment capable of overcoming the district’s partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$9,390Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 9th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+22, making it one of the most Democratic seats in the country. Longtime incumbent Adam Smith, first elected in 1996, faces a top-two primary on August 4, 2026, against fellow Democrat Melissa Chaudhry, Republican Douglas Basler, and minor-party candidates before the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with Smith’s 2024 margin and the district’s consistent support for Democratic presidential candidates. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects this structural advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline. A credible challenge would require either an unanticipated primary upset, a significant scandal involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican national environment capable of overcoming the district’s partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,390Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington’s 9th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+22, making it one of the most Democratic seats in the country. Longtime incumbent Adam Smith, first elected in 1996, faces a top-two primary on August 4, 2026, against fellow Democrat Melissa Chaudhry, Republican Douglas Basler, and minor-party candidates before the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with Smith’s 2024 margin and the district’s consistent support for Democratic presidential candidates. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects this structural advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline. A credible challenge would require either an unanticipated primary upset, a significant scandal involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican national environment capable of overcoming the district’s partisan lean.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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