Incumbent Democrat Kim Schrier advanced from the August 2026 top-two primary with over 53 percent of the vote in Washington’s 8th congressional district, while Republican Spencer Meline secured the second spot with roughly 16 percent amid a split GOP field. Traders assign Schrier a 97 percent implied probability of retaining the seat in the November general election, reflecting her established incumbency since 2018, a D+3 partisan voter index, and consistent “Solid Democratic” ratings from forecasters. Her campaign has raised more than $3 million compared with Meline’s under $130,000, underscoring resource advantages in a suburban and exurban district east of Seattle. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national midterm environment or late developments that significantly alter turnout or voter preferences in counties such as King and Snohomish.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWA-08 House Election Winner
WA-08 House Election Winner
$22,610 Vol.
$22,610 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Kim Schrier (D)
97%
Spencer Meline (R)
2%
$22,610 Vol.
$22,610 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Kim Schrier (D)
$9,508 Vol.
97%
Spencer Meline (R)
$13,102 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kim Schrier advanced from the August 2026 top-two primary with over 53 percent of the vote in Washington’s 8th congressional district, while Republican Spencer Meline secured the second spot with roughly 16 percent amid a split GOP field. Traders assign Schrier a 97 percent implied probability of retaining the seat in the November general election, reflecting her established incumbency since 2018, a D+3 partisan voter index, and consistent “Solid Democratic” ratings from forecasters. Her campaign has raised more than $3 million compared with Meline’s under $130,000, underscoring resource advantages in a suburban and exurban district east of Seattle. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national midterm environment or late developments that significantly alter turnout or voter preferences in counties such as King and Snohomish.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$22,610Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kim Schrier advanced from the August 2026 top-two primary with over 53 percent of the vote in Washington’s 8th congressional district, while Republican Spencer Meline secured the second spot with roughly 16 percent amid a split GOP field. Traders assign Schrier a 97 percent implied probability of retaining the seat in the November general election, reflecting her established incumbency since 2018, a D+3 partisan voter index, and consistent “Solid Democratic” ratings from forecasters. Her campaign has raised more than $3 million compared with Meline’s under $130,000, underscoring resource advantages in a suburban and exurban district east of Seattle. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national midterm environment or late developments that significantly alter turnout or voter preferences in counties such as King and Snohomish.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,610Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kim Schrier advanced from the August 2026 top-two primary with over 53 percent of the vote in Washington’s 8th congressional district, while Republican Spencer Meline secured the second spot with roughly 16 percent amid a split GOP field. Traders assign Schrier a 97 percent implied probability of retaining the seat in the November general election, reflecting her established incumbency since 2018, a D+3 partisan voter index, and consistent “Solid Democratic” ratings from forecasters. Her campaign has raised more than $3 million compared with Meline’s under $130,000, underscoring resource advantages in a suburban and exurban district east of Seattle. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national midterm environment or late developments that significantly alter turnout or voter preferences in counties such as King and Snohomish.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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