**Rafael López Aliaga of Renovación Popular leads the Lima mayoral race with a clear edge in recent polling and name recognition as the former mayor who resigned in 2025 to pursue higher office.** Legal hurdles over his senator-elect status were resolved by the JNE in early September, confirming his eligibility as first regidor on the party list and enabling him to assume the mayoralty if the top candidate vacates the post. Polls from CPI and IEP in late August and mid-September place him ahead of Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) and other contenders, though the race remains competitive with a sizable undecided share. The October 4 election timing favors established candidates with municipal experience and party infrastructure in the capital, where López Aliaga’s prior tenure and Renovación Popular’s local organization provide structural advantages reflected in current trader pricing. Lower-probability outcomes for Bruce, Francis Allison, Daniel Urresti, and others align with their more modest survey support and limited recent momentum.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoRafael López Aliaga 75.6%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 21.1%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.6%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 2.4%
$148,594 Vol.
$148,594 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
76%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
21%
Francis James Allison Oyague
3%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 75.6%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 21.1%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.6%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 2.4%
$148,594 Vol.
$148,594 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
76%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
21%
Francis James Allison Oyague
3%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Rafael López Aliaga of Renovación Popular leads the Lima mayoral race with a clear edge in recent polling and name recognition as the former mayor who resigned in 2025 to pursue higher office.** Legal hurdles over his senator-elect status were resolved by the JNE in early September, confirming his eligibility as first regidor on the party list and enabling him to assume the mayoralty if the top candidate vacates the post. Polls from CPI and IEP in late August and mid-September place him ahead of Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) and other contenders, though the race remains competitive with a sizable undecided share. The October 4 election timing favors established candidates with municipal experience and party infrastructure in the capital, where López Aliaga’s prior tenure and Renovación Popular’s local organization provide structural advantages reflected in current trader pricing. Lower-probability outcomes for Bruce, Francis Allison, Daniel Urresti, and others align with their more modest survey support and limited recent momentum.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti