Lloyd Smucker’s commanding position in the PA-11 House race reflects the district’s consistent Republican lean, demonstrated by his 2024 reelection margin and repeated “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from forecasters. The incumbent advanced unopposed through the May 2026 primary while maintaining a substantial fundraising edge, with over $1 million in cash on hand compared with the Democratic nominee’s limited resources. Nancy Mannion’s unopposed primary win has not altered the structural dynamics in this Lancaster- and York County-based seat. Trader consensus at 97 percent for Smucker aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant national political shift, or unusually high Democratic turnout could still influence the November outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPA-11 House Election Winner
PA-11 House Election Winner
$25,830 Vol.
$25,830 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Lloyd Smucker (R)
97%
Nancy Mannion (D)
3%
$25,830 Vol.
$25,830 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Lloyd Smucker (R)
$15,674 Vol.
97%
Nancy Mannion (D)
$10,156 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Lloyd Smucker’s commanding position in the PA-11 House race reflects the district’s consistent Republican lean, demonstrated by his 2024 reelection margin and repeated “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from forecasters. The incumbent advanced unopposed through the May 2026 primary while maintaining a substantial fundraising edge, with over $1 million in cash on hand compared with the Democratic nominee’s limited resources. Nancy Mannion’s unopposed primary win has not altered the structural dynamics in this Lancaster- and York County-based seat. Trader consensus at 97 percent for Smucker aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant national political shift, or unusually high Democratic turnout could still influence the November outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$25,830Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Lloyd Smucker’s commanding position in the PA-11 House race reflects the district’s consistent Republican lean, demonstrated by his 2024 reelection margin and repeated “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from forecasters. The incumbent advanced unopposed through the May 2026 primary while maintaining a substantial fundraising edge, with over $1 million in cash on hand compared with the Democratic nominee’s limited resources. Nancy Mannion’s unopposed primary win has not altered the structural dynamics in this Lancaster- and York County-based seat. Trader consensus at 97 percent for Smucker aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant national political shift, or unusually high Democratic turnout could still influence the November outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,830Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Lloyd Smucker’s commanding position in the PA-11 House race reflects the district’s consistent Republican lean, demonstrated by his 2024 reelection margin and repeated “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from forecasters. The incumbent advanced unopposed through the May 2026 primary while maintaining a substantial fundraising edge, with over $1 million in cash on hand compared with the Democratic nominee’s limited resources. Nancy Mannion’s unopposed primary win has not altered the structural dynamics in this Lancaster- and York County-based seat. Trader consensus at 97 percent for Smucker aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant national political shift, or unusually high Democratic turnout could still influence the November outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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