Incumbent Democratic Representative Summer Lee holds a commanding lead in the Pennsylvania 12th congressional district race for the November 3, 2026 general election. The district's D+10 Cook Partisan Voter Index reflects its consistent Democratic tilt in recent presidential voting, which underpins trader consensus around a 93.5% probability for the Democratic nominee. Lee secured the nomination easily in the May 2026 primary against limited opposition, while Republican nominee James Hayes faces structural challenges in a district where Democrats have maintained strong margins. Factors such as incumbency advantages, established fundraising networks, and voter registration patterns contribute to the wide gap. Scenarios that could narrow the outcome include a significant national Republican wave, late scandals, or unusually high turnout shifts, though current conditions indicate limited realistic paths for reversal before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPA-12 House Election Winner
PA-12 House Election Winner
$15,919 Vol.
$15,919 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
2%
$15,919 Vol.
$15,919 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$11,271 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$4,648 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Summer Lee holds a commanding lead in the Pennsylvania 12th congressional district race for the November 3, 2026 general election. The district's D+10 Cook Partisan Voter Index reflects its consistent Democratic tilt in recent presidential voting, which underpins trader consensus around a 93.5% probability for the Democratic nominee. Lee secured the nomination easily in the May 2026 primary against limited opposition, while Republican nominee James Hayes faces structural challenges in a district where Democrats have maintained strong margins. Factors such as incumbency advantages, established fundraising networks, and voter registration patterns contribute to the wide gap. Scenarios that could narrow the outcome include a significant national Republican wave, late scandals, or unusually high turnout shifts, though current conditions indicate limited realistic paths for reversal before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$15,919Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Summer Lee holds a commanding lead in the Pennsylvania 12th congressional district race for the November 3, 2026 general election. The district's D+10 Cook Partisan Voter Index reflects its consistent Democratic tilt in recent presidential voting, which underpins trader consensus around a 93.5% probability for the Democratic nominee. Lee secured the nomination easily in the May 2026 primary against limited opposition, while Republican nominee James Hayes faces structural challenges in a district where Democrats have maintained strong margins. Factors such as incumbency advantages, established fundraising networks, and voter registration patterns contribute to the wide gap. Scenarios that could narrow the outcome include a significant national Republican wave, late scandals, or unusually high turnout shifts, though current conditions indicate limited realistic paths for reversal before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,919Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Summer Lee holds a commanding lead in the Pennsylvania 12th congressional district race for the November 3, 2026 general election. The district's D+10 Cook Partisan Voter Index reflects its consistent Democratic tilt in recent presidential voting, which underpins trader consensus around a 93.5% probability for the Democratic nominee. Lee secured the nomination easily in the May 2026 primary against limited opposition, while Republican nominee James Hayes faces structural challenges in a district where Democrats have maintained strong margins. Factors such as incumbency advantages, established fundraising networks, and voter registration patterns contribute to the wide gap. Scenarios that could narrow the outcome include a significant national Republican wave, late scandals, or unusually high turnout shifts, though current conditions indicate limited realistic paths for reversal before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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