Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a strong position in Washington’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November general election. She advanced from the August top-two primary ahead of Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun, who received a Trump endorsement. The R+2 district favored Trump in 2024, yet Perez has demonstrated resilience as a moderate incumbent through consistent fundraising leads and crossover appeal in a swing area. Recent polling averages showed a tight race, but trader consensus reflects her incumbency edge, higher cash reserves, and the broader national environment favoring Democrats in House contests. Braun’s campaign emphasizes state legislative experience and party-line priorities, yet structural factors and primary performance have kept his implied probability lower. The race remains one of the cycle’s more competitive contests, with limited late developments shifting the balance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$34,709 Vol.
$34,709 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
89%
John Braun (R)
11%
$34,709 Vol.
$34,709 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
$23,646 Vol.
89%
John Braun (R)
$11,063 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a strong position in Washington’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November general election. She advanced from the August top-two primary ahead of Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun, who received a Trump endorsement. The R+2 district favored Trump in 2024, yet Perez has demonstrated resilience as a moderate incumbent through consistent fundraising leads and crossover appeal in a swing area. Recent polling averages showed a tight race, but trader consensus reflects her incumbency edge, higher cash reserves, and the broader national environment favoring Democrats in House contests. Braun’s campaign emphasizes state legislative experience and party-line priorities, yet structural factors and primary performance have kept his implied probability lower. The race remains one of the cycle’s more competitive contests, with limited late developments shifting the balance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$34,709Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a strong position in Washington’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November general election. She advanced from the August top-two primary ahead of Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun, who received a Trump endorsement. The R+2 district favored Trump in 2024, yet Perez has demonstrated resilience as a moderate incumbent through consistent fundraising leads and crossover appeal in a swing area. Recent polling averages showed a tight race, but trader consensus reflects her incumbency edge, higher cash reserves, and the broader national environment favoring Democrats in House contests. Braun’s campaign emphasizes state legislative experience and party-line priorities, yet structural factors and primary performance have kept his implied probability lower. The race remains one of the cycle’s more competitive contests, with limited late developments shifting the balance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,709Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a strong position in Washington’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November general election. She advanced from the August top-two primary ahead of Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun, who received a Trump endorsement. The R+2 district favored Trump in 2024, yet Perez has demonstrated resilience as a moderate incumbent through consistent fundraising leads and crossover appeal in a swing area. Recent polling averages showed a tight race, but trader consensus reflects her incumbency edge, higher cash reserves, and the broader national environment favoring Democrats in House contests. Braun’s campaign emphasizes state legislative experience and party-line priorities, yet structural factors and primary performance have kept his implied probability lower. The race remains one of the cycle’s more competitive contests, with limited late developments shifting the balance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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