Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat’s D+17 Partisan Voter Index, combined with recent redistricting that anchored it more firmly around Richmond and Southside Virginia, produced a 33-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in the prior cycle. McClellan advanced unopposed after the Democratic primary was canceled, while Republican nominee Robert Murray and an independent candidate face minimal fundraising and visibility. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national swing could theoretically alter the outcome, though historical margins and structural advantages make such shifts improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVA-04 House Election Winner
VA-04 House Election Winner
$41,362 Vol.
$41,362 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
2%
$41,362 Vol.
$41,362 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$12,217 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$29,145 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat’s D+17 Partisan Voter Index, combined with recent redistricting that anchored it more firmly around Richmond and Southside Virginia, produced a 33-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in the prior cycle. McClellan advanced unopposed after the Democratic primary was canceled, while Republican nominee Robert Murray and an independent candidate face minimal fundraising and visibility. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national swing could theoretically alter the outcome, though historical margins and structural advantages make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$41,362Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat’s D+17 Partisan Voter Index, combined with recent redistricting that anchored it more firmly around Richmond and Southside Virginia, produced a 33-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in the prior cycle. McClellan advanced unopposed after the Democratic primary was canceled, while Republican nominee Robert Murray and an independent candidate face minimal fundraising and visibility. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national swing could theoretically alter the outcome, though historical margins and structural advantages make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$41,362Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat’s D+17 Partisan Voter Index, combined with recent redistricting that anchored it more firmly around Richmond and Southside Virginia, produced a 33-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in the prior cycle. McClellan advanced unopposed after the Democratic primary was canceled, while Republican nominee Robert Murray and an independent candidate face minimal fundraising and visibility. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national swing could theoretically alter the outcome, though historical margins and structural advantages make such shifts improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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