**The Iceland EU referendum on resuming accession negotiations, scheduled for 29 August 2026, features a narrow contest reflected in recent polls (51.3% yes vs. 48.7% no in the latest Maskína survey), which has narrowed from earlier leads and drives expectations of solid but variable voter participation.** High historical turnout in Icelandic parliamentary elections (around 80%) and prior referendums sets a baseline, while the single-issue vote on sovereignty, fisheries policy, and economic ties amid geopolitical pressures—including U.S. tariffs and regional security concerns—encourages mobilization on both sides. Early voting since late July and the closely divided electorate suggest turnout could hinge on last-minute engagement and regional differences (stronger yes support in the capital), with traders assigning roughly equal probability to mid-60s, mid-70s, and 85%+ brackets due to uncertainty over summer timing and issue salience. A decisive result on either side of the yes/no question would further underscore how participation levels shape the outcome in this tight race.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato45–50% 27%
55–60% 27%
80–85% 27%
Oltre 85% 27%
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NUOVO
29 ago 2026
<45%
25%
45–50%
27%
50–55%
24%
55–60%
27%
60–65%
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65–70%
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70–75%
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75–80%
24%
80–85%
27%
Oltre 85%
27%
45–50% 27%
55–60% 27%
80–85% 27%
Oltre 85% 27%
NUOVO
NUOVO
29 ago 2026
<45%
$0 Vol.
25%
45–50%
$0 Vol.
27%
50–55%
$0 Vol.
24%
55–60%
$0 Vol.
27%
60–65%
$0 Vol.
25%
65–70%
$0 Vol.
25%
70–75%
$0 Vol.
25%
75–80%
$0 Vol.
24%
80–85%
$0 Vol.
27%
Oltre 85%
$0 Vol.
27%
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**The Iceland EU referendum on resuming accession negotiations, scheduled for 29 August 2026, features a narrow contest reflected in recent polls (51.3% yes vs. 48.7% no in the latest Maskína survey), which has narrowed from earlier leads and drives expectations of solid but variable voter participation.** High historical turnout in Icelandic parliamentary elections (around 80%) and prior referendums sets a baseline, while the single-issue vote on sovereignty, fisheries policy, and economic ties amid geopolitical pressures—including U.S. tariffs and regional security concerns—encourages mobilization on both sides. Early voting since late July and the closely divided electorate suggest turnout could hinge on last-minute engagement and regional differences (stronger yes support in the capital), with traders assigning roughly equal probability to mid-60s, mid-70s, and 85%+ brackets due to uncertainty over summer timing and issue salience. A decisive result on either side of the yes/no question would further underscore how participation levels shape the outcome in this tight race.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Mercato aperto: Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
29 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**The Iceland EU referendum on resuming accession negotiations, scheduled for 29 August 2026, features a narrow contest reflected in recent polls (51.3% yes vs. 48.7% no in the latest Maskína survey), which has narrowed from earlier leads and drives expectations of solid but variable voter participation.** High historical turnout in Icelandic parliamentary elections (around 80%) and prior referendums sets a baseline, while the single-issue vote on sovereignty, fisheries policy, and economic ties amid geopolitical pressures—including U.S. tariffs and regional security concerns—encourages mobilization on both sides. Early voting since late July and the closely divided electorate suggest turnout could hinge on last-minute engagement and regional differences (stronger yes support in the capital), with traders assigning roughly equal probability to mid-60s, mid-70s, and 85%+ brackets due to uncertainty over summer timing and issue salience. A decisive result on either side of the yes/no question would further underscore how participation levels shape the outcome in this tight race.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$0Data di fine
29 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The Iceland EU referendum on resuming accession negotiations, scheduled for 29 August 2026, features a narrow contest reflected in recent polls (51.3% yes vs. 48.7% no in the latest Maskína survey), which has narrowed from earlier leads and drives expectations of solid but variable voter participation.** High historical turnout in Icelandic parliamentary elections (around 80%) and prior referendums sets a baseline, while the single-issue vote on sovereignty, fisheries policy, and economic ties amid geopolitical pressures—including U.S. tariffs and regional security concerns—encourages mobilization on both sides. Early voting since late July and the closely divided electorate suggest turnout could hinge on last-minute engagement and regional differences (stronger yes support in the capital), with traders assigning roughly equal probability to mid-60s, mid-70s, and 85%+ brackets due to uncertainty over summer timing and issue salience. A decisive result on either side of the yes/no question would further underscore how participation levels shape the outcome in this tight race.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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