Maryland's 4th congressional district ranks among the nation's most Democratic-leaning seats, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39 to D+40 based on recent presidential results. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 77-79% of the vote against several challengers and now faces Republican George McDermott in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles and limited Republican recruitment or fundraising. Trader consensus at 97.6% for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals and historical base rates for such districts. Only an extraordinary national Republican wave, a late scandal involving the incumbent, or a major health event would realistically alter the outcome before resolution on November 3, 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMD-04 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
MD-04 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
$47,087 Vol.
$47,087 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
98%
Partito Repubblicano
<1%
$47,087 Vol.
$47,087 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$21,383 Vol.
98%
Partito Repubblicano
$25,705 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district ranks among the nation's most Democratic-leaning seats, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39 to D+40 based on recent presidential results. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 77-79% of the vote against several challengers and now faces Republican George McDermott in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles and limited Republican recruitment or fundraising. Trader consensus at 97.6% for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals and historical base rates for such districts. Only an extraordinary national Republican wave, a late scandal involving the incumbent, or a major health event would realistically alter the outcome before resolution on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$47,087Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district ranks among the nation's most Democratic-leaning seats, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39 to D+40 based on recent presidential results. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 77-79% of the vote against several challengers and now faces Republican George McDermott in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles and limited Republican recruitment or fundraising. Trader consensus at 97.6% for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals and historical base rates for such districts. Only an extraordinary national Republican wave, a late scandal involving the incumbent, or a major health event would realistically alter the outcome before resolution on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,087Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland's 4th congressional district ranks among the nation's most Democratic-leaning seats, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39 to D+40 based on recent presidential results. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 77-79% of the vote against several challengers and now faces Republican George McDermott in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles and limited Republican recruitment or fundraising. Trader consensus at 97.6% for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals and historical base rates for such districts. Only an extraordinary national Republican wave, a late scandal involving the incumbent, or a major health event would realistically alter the outcome before resolution on November 3, 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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