Sarah Elfreth’s decisive Democratic primary victory and the district’s consistent Democratic lean of roughly D+12 drive trader consensus that the party will hold Maryland’s 3rd congressional seat. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting its suburban Baltimore and Annapolis composition and Elfreth’s 2024 general-election margin. Republican nominee Berney Flowers faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic candidates routinely exceed 55-60 percent. The 95.5 percent Democratic price captures this baseline advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the outlook. Late-cycle national shifts, unexpected scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparable districts make such reversals improbable before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMD-03 House Election Winner
MD-03 House Election Winner
$45,762 Vol.
$45,762 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$45,762 Vol.
$45,762 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$20,975 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$24,788 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sarah Elfreth’s decisive Democratic primary victory and the district’s consistent Democratic lean of roughly D+12 drive trader consensus that the party will hold Maryland’s 3rd congressional seat. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting its suburban Baltimore and Annapolis composition and Elfreth’s 2024 general-election margin. Republican nominee Berney Flowers faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic candidates routinely exceed 55-60 percent. The 95.5 percent Democratic price captures this baseline advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the outlook. Late-cycle national shifts, unexpected scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparable districts make such reversals improbable before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$45,762Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sarah Elfreth’s decisive Democratic primary victory and the district’s consistent Democratic lean of roughly D+12 drive trader consensus that the party will hold Maryland’s 3rd congressional seat. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting its suburban Baltimore and Annapolis composition and Elfreth’s 2024 general-election margin. Republican nominee Berney Flowers faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic candidates routinely exceed 55-60 percent. The 95.5 percent Democratic price captures this baseline advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the outlook. Late-cycle national shifts, unexpected scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparable districts make such reversals improbable before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$45,762Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Sarah Elfreth’s decisive Democratic primary victory and the district’s consistent Democratic lean of roughly D+12 drive trader consensus that the party will hold Maryland’s 3rd congressional seat. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting its suburban Baltimore and Annapolis composition and Elfreth’s 2024 general-election margin. Republican nominee Berney Flowers faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic candidates routinely exceed 55-60 percent. The 95.5 percent Democratic price captures this baseline advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the outlook. Late-cycle national shifts, unexpected scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparable districts make such reversals improbable before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti