Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding 91% implied probability in Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district, driven by the seat's R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and repeated strong Republican margins in recent presidential contests. Kelly, first elected in 2011 and a senior Ways and Means Committee member, advanced unopposed through the May 2026 Republican primary. Democrat Justin Wagner, a veteran and engineer who also faced no primary opposition, trails sharply in fundraising and faces a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and other analysts. With the November 3 general election approaching and no recent polling or events indicating momentum shifts, the current trader consensus reflects the district's structural Republican advantage. Late-breaking developments such as major scandals or unexpected national political changes could still alter the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPA-16 House Election Winner
PA-16 House Election Winner
$40,208 Vol.
$40,208 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mike Kelly (R)
91%
Justin Wagner (D)
7%
$40,208 Vol.
$40,208 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mike Kelly (R)
$23,886 Vol.
91%
Justin Wagner (D)
$16,322 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding 91% implied probability in Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district, driven by the seat's R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and repeated strong Republican margins in recent presidential contests. Kelly, first elected in 2011 and a senior Ways and Means Committee member, advanced unopposed through the May 2026 Republican primary. Democrat Justin Wagner, a veteran and engineer who also faced no primary opposition, trails sharply in fundraising and faces a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and other analysts. With the November 3 general election approaching and no recent polling or events indicating momentum shifts, the current trader consensus reflects the district's structural Republican advantage. Late-breaking developments such as major scandals or unexpected national political changes could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$40,208Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding 91% implied probability in Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district, driven by the seat's R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and repeated strong Republican margins in recent presidential contests. Kelly, first elected in 2011 and a senior Ways and Means Committee member, advanced unopposed through the May 2026 Republican primary. Democrat Justin Wagner, a veteran and engineer who also faced no primary opposition, trails sharply in fundraising and faces a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and other analysts. With the November 3 general election approaching and no recent polling or events indicating momentum shifts, the current trader consensus reflects the district's structural Republican advantage. Late-breaking developments such as major scandals or unexpected national political changes could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,208Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding 91% implied probability in Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district, driven by the seat's R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and repeated strong Republican margins in recent presidential contests. Kelly, first elected in 2011 and a senior Ways and Means Committee member, advanced unopposed through the May 2026 Republican primary. Democrat Justin Wagner, a veteran and engineer who also faced no primary opposition, trails sharply in fundraising and faces a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and other analysts. With the November 3 general election approaching and no recent polling or events indicating momentum shifts, the current trader consensus reflects the district's structural Republican advantage. Late-breaking developments such as major scandals or unexpected national political changes could still alter the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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