Redistricting under California Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, shifted the 48th district's partisan voting index toward Democrats by roughly six points, creating an open-seat contest after longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa retired. Democrat Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego city councilmember, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Jim Desmond, a county supervisor. Trader consensus at 86.5% for Democrats reflects the district's new composition favoring Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with the structural edge of an open seat. A late-July 2026 poll showed von Wilpert leading Desmond 48% to 46% within the margin of error, while independent forecasts rate the race Lean Democratic or Toss Up. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution trigger, with campaign spending and turnout in San Diego County suburbs likely to influence final margins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-48 House Election Winner
CA-48 House Election Winner
$13,780 Vol.
$13,780 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
87%
Republican Party
14%
$13,780 Vol.
$13,780 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$6,697 Vol.
87%
Republican Party
$7,083 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, shifted the 48th district's partisan voting index toward Democrats by roughly six points, creating an open-seat contest after longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa retired. Democrat Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego city councilmember, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Jim Desmond, a county supervisor. Trader consensus at 86.5% for Democrats reflects the district's new composition favoring Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with the structural edge of an open seat. A late-July 2026 poll showed von Wilpert leading Desmond 48% to 46% within the margin of error, while independent forecasts rate the race Lean Democratic or Toss Up. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution trigger, with campaign spending and turnout in San Diego County suburbs likely to influence final margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$13,780Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, shifted the 48th district's partisan voting index toward Democrats by roughly six points, creating an open-seat contest after longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa retired. Democrat Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego city councilmember, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Jim Desmond, a county supervisor. Trader consensus at 86.5% for Democrats reflects the district's new composition favoring Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with the structural edge of an open seat. A late-July 2026 poll showed von Wilpert leading Desmond 48% to 46% within the margin of error, while independent forecasts rate the race Lean Democratic or Toss Up. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution trigger, with campaign spending and turnout in San Diego County suburbs likely to influence final margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,780Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, shifted the 48th district's partisan voting index toward Democrats by roughly six points, creating an open-seat contest after longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa retired. Democrat Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego city councilmember, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Jim Desmond, a county supervisor. Trader consensus at 86.5% for Democrats reflects the district's new composition favoring Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with the structural edge of an open seat. A late-July 2026 poll showed von Wilpert leading Desmond 48% to 46% within the margin of error, while independent forecasts rate the race Lean Democratic or Toss Up. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution trigger, with campaign spending and turnout in San Diego County suburbs likely to influence final margins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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