The district's pronounced Republican lean, reinforced by its rural character outside Gainesville and consistent partisan voting patterns, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93%. Incumbent Kat Cammack advanced unopposed through the August 2026 primary after securing 61.6% in 2024, while Democrat Seth Harp emerged from a low-profile primary, reflecting limited opposition resources and fundraising. Historical base rates for similar solidly Republican seats show reelection rates exceeding 90% absent major disruptions. Late developments that could narrow the margin include a significant national Democratic surge, an unforeseen scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in Alachua County.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFL-03 House Election Winner
FL-03 House Election Winner
$28,896 Vol.
$28,896 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$28,896 Vol.
$28,896 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
$11,576 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$17,320 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's pronounced Republican lean, reinforced by its rural character outside Gainesville and consistent partisan voting patterns, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93%. Incumbent Kat Cammack advanced unopposed through the August 2026 primary after securing 61.6% in 2024, while Democrat Seth Harp emerged from a low-profile primary, reflecting limited opposition resources and fundraising. Historical base rates for similar solidly Republican seats show reelection rates exceeding 90% absent major disruptions. Late developments that could narrow the margin include a significant national Democratic surge, an unforeseen scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in Alachua County.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$28,896Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's pronounced Republican lean, reinforced by its rural character outside Gainesville and consistent partisan voting patterns, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93%. Incumbent Kat Cammack advanced unopposed through the August 2026 primary after securing 61.6% in 2024, while Democrat Seth Harp emerged from a low-profile primary, reflecting limited opposition resources and fundraising. Historical base rates for similar solidly Republican seats show reelection rates exceeding 90% absent major disruptions. Late developments that could narrow the margin include a significant national Democratic surge, an unforeseen scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in Alachua County.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,896Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's pronounced Republican lean, reinforced by its rural character outside Gainesville and consistent partisan voting patterns, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93%. Incumbent Kat Cammack advanced unopposed through the August 2026 primary after securing 61.6% in 2024, while Democrat Seth Harp emerged from a low-profile primary, reflecting limited opposition resources and fundraising. Historical base rates for similar solidly Republican seats show reelection rates exceeding 90% absent major disruptions. Late developments that could narrow the margin include a significant national Democratic surge, an unforeseen scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in Alachua County.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti