The solidly Democratic character of New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing Manhattan neighborhoods with long-standing partisan voting patterns, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic general-election victory. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement has produced a competitive Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, yet forecasters rate the seat as safe for the eventual nominee. The Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a district where recent results have favored Democrats by wide margins. Late developments such as a primary upset producing an unusually weak Democratic candidate or a national political shift altering turnout could theoretically narrow the gap, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$20,211 Vol.
$20,211 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
95%
Partito Repubblicano
5%
$20,211 Vol.
$20,211 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$16,248 Vol.
95%
Partito Repubblicano
$3,963 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Democratic character of New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing Manhattan neighborhoods with long-standing partisan voting patterns, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic general-election victory. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement has produced a competitive Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, yet forecasters rate the seat as safe for the eventual nominee. The Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a district where recent results have favored Democrats by wide margins. Late developments such as a primary upset producing an unusually weak Democratic candidate or a national political shift altering turnout could theoretically narrow the gap, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$20,211Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Democratic character of New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing Manhattan neighborhoods with long-standing partisan voting patterns, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic general-election victory. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement has produced a competitive Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, yet forecasters rate the seat as safe for the eventual nominee. The Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a district where recent results have favored Democrats by wide margins. Late developments such as a primary upset producing an unusually weak Democratic candidate or a national political shift altering turnout could theoretically narrow the gap, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,211Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The solidly Democratic character of New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing Manhattan neighborhoods with long-standing partisan voting patterns, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic general-election victory. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement has produced a competitive Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, yet forecasters rate the seat as safe for the eventual nominee. The Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a district where recent results have favored Democrats by wide margins. Late developments such as a primary upset producing an unusually weak Democratic candidate or a national political shift altering turnout could theoretically narrow the gap, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti