Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 House race, backed by the rural northern Illinois district’s consistent R+11 partisan lean and his unopposed primary victories in both 2024 and 2026. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, citing LaHood’s established name recognition, family political legacy, and substantial fundraising edge over Democrat Paul Nolley. Trader consensus on the 93.5% Republican probability aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive challengers or major local shifts. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually strong national midterm environment, late-cycle disruptions such as a significant scandal or health event involving LaHood, or unusually high opposition turnout and resources. The November 3, 2026 general election remains the resolution trigger.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIL-16 House Election Winner
IL-16 House Election Winner
$38,378 Vol.
$38,378 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$38,378 Vol.
$38,378 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
$15,407 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$22,971 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 House race, backed by the rural northern Illinois district’s consistent R+11 partisan lean and his unopposed primary victories in both 2024 and 2026. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, citing LaHood’s established name recognition, family political legacy, and substantial fundraising edge over Democrat Paul Nolley. Trader consensus on the 93.5% Republican probability aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive challengers or major local shifts. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually strong national midterm environment, late-cycle disruptions such as a significant scandal or health event involving LaHood, or unusually high opposition turnout and resources. The November 3, 2026 general election remains the resolution trigger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$38,378Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 House race, backed by the rural northern Illinois district’s consistent R+11 partisan lean and his unopposed primary victories in both 2024 and 2026. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, citing LaHood’s established name recognition, family political legacy, and substantial fundraising edge over Democrat Paul Nolley. Trader consensus on the 93.5% Republican probability aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive challengers or major local shifts. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually strong national midterm environment, late-cycle disruptions such as a significant scandal or health event involving LaHood, or unusually high opposition turnout and resources. The November 3, 2026 general election remains the resolution trigger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38,378Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 House race, backed by the rural northern Illinois district’s consistent R+11 partisan lean and his unopposed primary victories in both 2024 and 2026. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, citing LaHood’s established name recognition, family political legacy, and substantial fundraising edge over Democrat Paul Nolley. Trader consensus on the 93.5% Republican probability aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive challengers or major local shifts. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually strong national midterm environment, late-cycle disruptions such as a significant scandal or health event involving LaHood, or unusually high opposition turnout and resources. The November 3, 2026 general election remains the resolution trigger.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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