Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 73 percent of the vote in Illinois's 15th congressional district, facing Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November general election. The district's R+20 Cook Partisan Voting Index, rural character, and consistent Republican margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around a 94.5 percent probability for the Republican Party. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by Miller, or an unprecedented national Democratic surge could still narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged in the current cycle.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIL-15 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
IL-15 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
$37,437 Vol.
$37,437 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
95%
Partito Democratico
6%
$37,437 Vol.
$37,437 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
$19,364 Vol.
95%
Partito Democratico
$18,074 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 73 percent of the vote in Illinois's 15th congressional district, facing Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November general election. The district's R+20 Cook Partisan Voting Index, rural character, and consistent Republican margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around a 94.5 percent probability for the Republican Party. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by Miller, or an unprecedented national Democratic surge could still narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$37,437Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 73 percent of the vote in Illinois's 15th congressional district, facing Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November general election. The district's R+20 Cook Partisan Voting Index, rural character, and consistent Republican margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around a 94.5 percent probability for the Republican Party. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by Miller, or an unprecedented national Democratic surge could still narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$37,437Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 73 percent of the vote in Illinois's 15th congressional district, facing Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November general election. The district's R+20 Cook Partisan Voting Index, rural character, and consistent Republican margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around a 94.5 percent probability for the Republican Party. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by Miller, or an unprecedented national Democratic surge could still narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged in the current cycle.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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