Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 partisan voting index and the incumbent’s consistent double-digit margins. Long-serving Representative Gwen Moore faces a Democratic primary on August 11 but enters the November 3 general election with established name recognition and fundraising leads. Republican primary contenders, including Purnima Nath, have not generated measurable statewide momentum or polling shifts. Historical turnout patterns and the district’s urban Milwaukee base continue to favor Democratic nominees. While a late primary upset or unforeseen national wave could narrow the gap, current structural factors sustain the wide implied probability for a Democratic hold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera WI-04
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera WI-04
$23,465 Vol.
$23,465 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
94%
Partito Repubblicano
3%
$23,465 Vol.
$23,465 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$6,364 Vol.
94%
Partito Repubblicano
$17,101 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 partisan voting index and the incumbent’s consistent double-digit margins. Long-serving Representative Gwen Moore faces a Democratic primary on August 11 but enters the November 3 general election with established name recognition and fundraising leads. Republican primary contenders, including Purnima Nath, have not generated measurable statewide momentum or polling shifts. Historical turnout patterns and the district’s urban Milwaukee base continue to favor Democratic nominees. While a late primary upset or unforeseen national wave could narrow the gap, current structural factors sustain the wide implied probability for a Democratic hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$23,465Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 partisan voting index and the incumbent’s consistent double-digit margins. Long-serving Representative Gwen Moore faces a Democratic primary on August 11 but enters the November 3 general election with established name recognition and fundraising leads. Republican primary contenders, including Purnima Nath, have not generated measurable statewide momentum or polling shifts. Historical turnout patterns and the district’s urban Milwaukee base continue to favor Democratic nominees. While a late primary upset or unforeseen national wave could narrow the gap, current structural factors sustain the wide implied probability for a Democratic hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,465Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 partisan voting index and the incumbent’s consistent double-digit margins. Long-serving Representative Gwen Moore faces a Democratic primary on August 11 but enters the November 3 general election with established name recognition and fundraising leads. Republican primary contenders, including Purnima Nath, have not generated measurable statewide momentum or polling shifts. Historical turnout patterns and the district’s urban Milwaukee base continue to favor Democratic nominees. While a late primary upset or unforeseen national wave could narrow the gap, current structural factors sustain the wide implied probability for a Democratic hold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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