Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's commanding position in the HI-02 race stems from the district's entrenched Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and partisan voting index favoring Democrats by double digits. Tokuda secured her party's nomination on August 8 with over 91 percent of the primary vote against limited challengers, building on her 2024 general election margin. Republican nominee Brenton Awa faces structural headwinds in this deep-blue Hawaii district. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Democrats incorporates these fundamentals while recognizing that late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or national electoral shift could still alter the outcome before November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHI-02 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
HI-02 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
$63,525 Vol.
$63,525 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
96%
Partito Repubblicano
6%
$63,525 Vol.
$63,525 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$43,095 Vol.
96%
Partito Repubblicano
$20,430 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's commanding position in the HI-02 race stems from the district's entrenched Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and partisan voting index favoring Democrats by double digits. Tokuda secured her party's nomination on August 8 with over 91 percent of the primary vote against limited challengers, building on her 2024 general election margin. Republican nominee Brenton Awa faces structural headwinds in this deep-blue Hawaii district. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Democrats incorporates these fundamentals while recognizing that late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or national electoral shift could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$63,525Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's commanding position in the HI-02 race stems from the district's entrenched Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and partisan voting index favoring Democrats by double digits. Tokuda secured her party's nomination on August 8 with over 91 percent of the primary vote against limited challengers, building on her 2024 general election margin. Republican nominee Brenton Awa faces structural headwinds in this deep-blue Hawaii district. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Democrats incorporates these fundamentals while recognizing that late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or national electoral shift could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$63,525Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's commanding position in the HI-02 race stems from the district's entrenched Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and partisan voting index favoring Democrats by double digits. Tokuda secured her party's nomination on August 8 with over 91 percent of the primary vote against limited challengers, building on her 2024 general election margin. Republican nominee Brenton Awa faces structural headwinds in this deep-blue Hawaii district. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Democrats incorporates these fundamentals while recognizing that late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or national electoral shift could still alter the outcome before November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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