Incumbent Democratic Rep. Jill Tokuda's commanding position in the HI-02 race stems from her decisive primary victory on August 8, where she captured over 91 percent of the vote against limited challengers, and the district's entrenched partisan lean. Hawaii's 2nd district, encompassing rural Oahu and the neighbor islands, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+12 and has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Republican nominee state Sen. Brenton Awa advances unopposed in his primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat last won by a Republican in the 1980s. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with any shift likely requiring an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development, or national political realignment before the November 3 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHI-02 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
HI-02 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
$63,525 Vol.
$63,525 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
96%
Partito Repubblicano
6%
$63,525 Vol.
$63,525 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$43,095 Vol.
96%
Partito Repubblicano
$20,430 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Jill Tokuda's commanding position in the HI-02 race stems from her decisive primary victory on August 8, where she captured over 91 percent of the vote against limited challengers, and the district's entrenched partisan lean. Hawaii's 2nd district, encompassing rural Oahu and the neighbor islands, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+12 and has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Republican nominee state Sen. Brenton Awa advances unopposed in his primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat last won by a Republican in the 1980s. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with any shift likely requiring an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development, or national political realignment before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$63,525Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Jill Tokuda's commanding position in the HI-02 race stems from her decisive primary victory on August 8, where she captured over 91 percent of the vote against limited challengers, and the district's entrenched partisan lean. Hawaii's 2nd district, encompassing rural Oahu and the neighbor islands, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+12 and has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Republican nominee state Sen. Brenton Awa advances unopposed in his primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat last won by a Republican in the 1980s. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with any shift likely requiring an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development, or national political realignment before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$63,525Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Rep. Jill Tokuda's commanding position in the HI-02 race stems from her decisive primary victory on August 8, where she captured over 91 percent of the vote against limited challengers, and the district's entrenched partisan lean. Hawaii's 2nd district, encompassing rural Oahu and the neighbor islands, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+12 and has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Republican nominee state Sen. Brenton Awa advances unopposed in his primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat last won by a Republican in the 1980s. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with any shift likely requiring an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development, or national political realignment before the November 3 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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