Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 72.5% implied probability for Virginia's 5th Congressional District House race, driven by the April 21, 2026, statewide referendum on a constitutional amendment allowing the Democratic-controlled General Assembly to redraw congressional maps before the November general election. Proposed maps could shift VA-05 boundaries to favor Democrats, amplifying recruitment successes like former Rep. Tom Perriello's strong fundraising lead—outpacing incumbent Rep. John McGuire three-to-one through early 2026—and Democratic primary consolidation after challenger Andrew Pruitt's February endorsement dropout. DCCC targeting as a "District in Play," Perriello's name recognition from prior service, and recent national involvement in referendum rallies underscore the competitive path-to-victory dynamics ahead of August primaries.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVA-05 House Election Winner
VA-05 House Election Winner
$28,017 Vol.
$28,017 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
76%
Republican Party
22%
$28,017 Vol.
$28,017 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$15,349 Vol.
76%
Republican Party
$12,668 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 72.5% implied probability for Virginia's 5th Congressional District House race, driven by the April 21, 2026, statewide referendum on a constitutional amendment allowing the Democratic-controlled General Assembly to redraw congressional maps before the November general election. Proposed maps could shift VA-05 boundaries to favor Democrats, amplifying recruitment successes like former Rep. Tom Perriello's strong fundraising lead—outpacing incumbent Rep. John McGuire three-to-one through early 2026—and Democratic primary consolidation after challenger Andrew Pruitt's February endorsement dropout. DCCC targeting as a "District in Play," Perriello's name recognition from prior service, and recent national involvement in referendum rallies underscore the competitive path-to-victory dynamics ahead of August primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$28,017Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 72.5% implied probability for Virginia's 5th Congressional District House race, driven by the April 21, 2026, statewide referendum on a constitutional amendment allowing the Democratic-controlled General Assembly to redraw congressional maps before the November general election. Proposed maps could shift VA-05 boundaries to favor Democrats, amplifying recruitment successes like former Rep. Tom Perriello's strong fundraising lead—outpacing incumbent Rep. John McGuire three-to-one through early 2026—and Democratic primary consolidation after challenger Andrew Pruitt's February endorsement dropout. DCCC targeting as a "District in Play," Perriello's name recognition from prior service, and recent national involvement in referendum rallies underscore the competitive path-to-victory dynamics ahead of August primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,017Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 72.5% implied probability for Virginia's 5th Congressional District House race, driven by the April 21, 2026, statewide referendum on a constitutional amendment allowing the Democratic-controlled General Assembly to redraw congressional maps before the November general election. Proposed maps could shift VA-05 boundaries to favor Democrats, amplifying recruitment successes like former Rep. Tom Perriello's strong fundraising lead—outpacing incumbent Rep. John McGuire three-to-one through early 2026—and Democratic primary consolidation after challenger Andrew Pruitt's February endorsement dropout. DCCC targeting as a "District in Play," Perriello's name recognition from prior service, and recent national involvement in referendum rallies underscore the competitive path-to-victory dynamics ahead of August primaries.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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