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Politica·Primarie

AZ-05 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie

Market icon
Politica·Primarie

AZ-05 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie

Mark Lamb 88%

Travis Grantham 3.7%

Jay Feely 2.8%

Polymarket

$44,704 Vol.

Mark Lamb 88%

Travis Grantham 3.7%

Jay Feely 2.8%

Polymarket

$44,704 Vol.

Mark Lamb

$2,119 Vol.

88%

Travis Grantham

$1,090 Vol.

4%

Jay Feely

$41,495 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability to win Arizona's 5th Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, driven by President Trump's November 2025 endorsement, Club for Growth backing, and a December 2025 poll showing his massive lead among likely GOP primary voters in this R+10 open seat left by Rep. Andy Biggs. State Rep. Travis Grantham's March 12 suspension of his campaign for active Air National Guard duty—cleared the field just before the April 6 filing deadline—further consolidated support for Lamb, whose signature submission secured his ballot spot. Former NFL kicker Jay Feely trails at 2.7% after switching to AZ-01 late last year. Late scandals or surges by minor candidates like Daniel Keenan could shift odds, though Lamb's name recognition and conservative credentials maintain his edge.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$44,704
Data di fine
4 ago 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 25, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability to win Arizona's 5th Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, driven by President Trump's November 2025 endorsement, Club for Growth backing, and a December 2025 poll showing his massive lead among likely GOP primary voters in this R+10 open seat left by Rep. Andy Biggs. State Rep. Travis Grantham's March 12 suspension of his campaign for active Air National Guard duty—cleared the field just before the April 6 filing deadline—further consolidated support for Lamb, whose signature submission secured his ballot spot. Former NFL kicker Jay Feely trails at 2.7% after switching to AZ-01 late last year. Late scandals or surges by minor candidates like Daniel Keenan could shift odds, though Lamb's name recognition and conservative credentials maintain his edge.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$44,704
Data di fine
4 ago 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 25, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Domande frequenti

"AZ-05 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 3 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Mark Lamb" a 88%, seguito da "Travis Grantham" a 4%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 88¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 88% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "AZ-05 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie" ha generato $44.7K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Nov 25, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "AZ-05 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie", esplora i 3 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "AZ-05 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie" è "Mark Lamb" a 88%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 88% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Travis Grantham" a 4%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "AZ-05 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.