The 92% trader-implied probability that H.R. 22, the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, will not become law in 2026 stems from repeated House passage followed by Senate inaction. The measure, requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, cleared the House in April 2025 and again in February 2026 on narrow partisan votes. In the Senate, where Republicans hold 53 seats, it faces a 60-vote cloture threshold that has not been met amid unified Democratic opposition and at least one Republican holdout. Senate Majority Leader John Thune declined to schedule consideration in spring 2026, and attempts to attach the provisions to must-pass appropriations measures, including a June DHS funding bill, failed. With no scheduled floor action or procedural changes before year-end, the bill lacks a realistic path to bicameral passage and presidential signature.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$168,338 Vol.
$168,338 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$168,338 Vol.
$168,338 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 92% trader-implied probability that H.R. 22, the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, will not become law in 2026 stems from repeated House passage followed by Senate inaction. The measure, requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, cleared the House in April 2025 and again in February 2026 on narrow partisan votes. In the Senate, where Republicans hold 53 seats, it faces a 60-vote cloture threshold that has not been met amid unified Democratic opposition and at least one Republican holdout. Senate Majority Leader John Thune declined to schedule consideration in spring 2026, and attempts to attach the provisions to must-pass appropriations measures, including a June DHS funding bill, failed. With no scheduled floor action or procedural changes before year-end, the bill lacks a realistic path to bicameral passage and presidential signature.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$168,338Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 92% trader-implied probability that H.R. 22, the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, will not become law in 2026 stems from repeated House passage followed by Senate inaction. The measure, requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, cleared the House in April 2025 and again in February 2026 on narrow partisan votes. In the Senate, where Republicans hold 53 seats, it faces a 60-vote cloture threshold that has not been met amid unified Democratic opposition and at least one Republican holdout. Senate Majority Leader John Thune declined to schedule consideration in spring 2026, and attempts to attach the provisions to must-pass appropriations measures, including a June DHS funding bill, failed. With no scheduled floor action or procedural changes before year-end, the bill lacks a realistic path to bicameral passage and presidential signature.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$168,338Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 92% trader-implied probability that H.R. 22, the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, will not become law in 2026 stems from repeated House passage followed by Senate inaction. The measure, requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, cleared the House in April 2025 and again in February 2026 on narrow partisan votes. In the Senate, where Republicans hold 53 seats, it faces a 60-vote cloture threshold that has not been met amid unified Democratic opposition and at least one Republican holdout. Senate Majority Leader John Thune declined to schedule consideration in spring 2026, and attempts to attach the provisions to must-pass appropriations measures, including a June DHS funding bill, failed. With no scheduled floor action or procedural changes before year-end, the bill lacks a realistic path to bicameral passage and presidential signature.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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