Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy price surges, elevating euro-area headline inflation and short-term expectations, which has shifted the ECB toward a tightening stance after holding its deposit facility rate at 2.00% in late April. Market-implied odds reflect broad trader consensus for a 25-basis-point hike at the June 10-11 meeting to address second-round effects amid resilient labor conditions and upwardly revised staff projections. This aligns with economist surveys anticipating sequential quarter-point moves. A durable decline in energy costs or rapid de-escalation could still tilt the outlook toward no change, though incoming data will determine whether the 96.8% implied probability holds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 96.8%
No change 3.4%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$667,760 Vol.
$667,760 Vol.
11 giu 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
3%
25 bps Increase
97%
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps Increase 96.8%
No change 3.4%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$667,760 Vol.
$667,760 Vol.
11 giu 2026
50+ bps decrease
$104,106 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$116,081 Vol.
<1%
No change
$152,274 Vol.
3%
25 bps Increase
$157,831 Vol.
97%
50+ bps increase
$137,468 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy price surges, elevating euro-area headline inflation and short-term expectations, which has shifted the ECB toward a tightening stance after holding its deposit facility rate at 2.00% in late April. Market-implied odds reflect broad trader consensus for a 25-basis-point hike at the June 10-11 meeting to address second-round effects amid resilient labor conditions and upwardly revised staff projections. This aligns with economist surveys anticipating sequential quarter-point moves. A durable decline in energy costs or rapid de-escalation could still tilt the outlook toward no change, though incoming data will determine whether the 96.8% implied probability holds.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$667,760Data di fine
11 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy price surges, elevating euro-area headline inflation and short-term expectations, which has shifted the ECB toward a tightening stance after holding its deposit facility rate at 2.00% in late April. Market-implied odds reflect broad trader consensus for a 25-basis-point hike at the June 10-11 meeting to address second-round effects amid resilient labor conditions and upwardly revised staff projections. This aligns with economist surveys anticipating sequential quarter-point moves. A durable decline in energy costs or rapid de-escalation could still tilt the outlook toward no change, though incoming data will determine whether the 96.8% implied probability holds.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volume
$667,760Data di fine
11 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy price surges, elevating euro-area headline inflation and short-term expectations, which has shifted the ECB toward a tightening stance after holding its deposit facility rate at 2.00% in late April. Market-implied odds reflect broad trader consensus for a 25-basis-point hike at the June 10-11 meeting to address second-round effects amid resilient labor conditions and upwardly revised staff projections. This aligns with economist surveys anticipating sequential quarter-point moves. A durable decline in energy costs or rapid de-escalation could still tilt the outlook toward no change, though incoming data will determine whether the 96.8% implied probability holds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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