Spain's status as reigning European champions and FIFA's No. 2-ranked side drives their commanding 81.5% implied probability to win Group H, bolstered by depth in attack with Lamine Yamal and Pedri, despite setbacks like Samu Aghehowa's February ACL tear ruling him out and Mikel Merino's recent foot surgery recovery progressing positively as of this week. Uruguay sits at 14.5% as the primary challenger, leveraging Marcelo Bielsa's tactical evolution, strong CONMEBOL qualifying finish, and stars like Darwin Núñez and Federico Valverde, with no major injury disruptions in recent March squad announcements. Saudi Arabia (2.8%) and debutants Cape Verde (1.1%) trail due to lower FIFA rankings around 60th and limited pedigree, though Saudi's 2022 upset history offers slim upset potential amid pre-tournament previews emphasizing Spain's dominance in the June fixtures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSpagna 82%
Uruguay 15%
Arabia Saudita 2.8%
Capo Verde 1.1%
$163,738 Vol.
$163,738 Vol.
Spagna
82%
Uruguay
15%
Arabia Saudita
3%
Capo Verde
1%
Spagna 82%
Uruguay 15%
Arabia Saudita 2.8%
Capo Verde 1.1%
$163,738 Vol.
$163,738 Vol.
Spagna
82%
Uruguay
15%
Arabia Saudita
3%
Capo Verde
1%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 5, 2025, 7:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain's status as reigning European champions and FIFA's No. 2-ranked side drives their commanding 81.5% implied probability to win Group H, bolstered by depth in attack with Lamine Yamal and Pedri, despite setbacks like Samu Aghehowa's February ACL tear ruling him out and Mikel Merino's recent foot surgery recovery progressing positively as of this week. Uruguay sits at 14.5% as the primary challenger, leveraging Marcelo Bielsa's tactical evolution, strong CONMEBOL qualifying finish, and stars like Darwin Núñez and Federico Valverde, with no major injury disruptions in recent March squad announcements. Saudi Arabia (2.8%) and debutants Cape Verde (1.1%) trail due to lower FIFA rankings around 60th and limited pedigree, though Saudi's 2022 upset history offers slim upset potential amid pre-tournament previews emphasizing Spain's dominance in the June fixtures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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