A strengthening El Niño, with NOAA assigning greater than 90% probability of a very strong event peaking this fall and winter, represents the dominant driver of early trader positioning on first snow timing. Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures have already reached +1.8°C in the Niño-3.4 region and continue rising, favoring above-normal temperatures across the western and central United States through November. This pattern typically suppresses early-season snowfall in lower elevations while allowing isolated high-elevation events in the northern Rockies as early as late September. NOAA’s September temperature outlook reinforces warmer-than-average conditions for much of the contiguous U.S., consistent with historical strong El Niño analogs. Traders will monitor upcoming CPC updates, short-range model consensus on cold-air intrusions, and any shifts in the Oceanic Niño Index for signals that could accelerate or further delay measurable snow at key resolution locations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPrima neve della stagione 2026

Buffalo, NY entro il 31 ottobre
74%

Denver, CO entro il 31 ottobre
72%

Minneapolis, MN entro il 31 ottobre
62%

Salt Lake City, UT entro il 31 ottobre
65%

Boston, MA entro il 15 novembre
70%

Buffalo, NY entro il 15 novembre
84%

Chicago, IL entro il 15 novembre
79%

Denver, CO entro il 15 novembre
90%

Detroit, MI entro il 15 novembre
80%

Indianapolis, IN entro il 15 novembre
66%

Kansas City, MO entro il 15 novembre
31%

Minneapolis, MN entro il 15 novembre
85%

Pittsburgh, PA entro il 15 novembre
71%

Salt Lake City, UT entro il 15 novembre
71%

Boston, MA entro il 30 novembre
71%

Buffalo, NY entro il 30 novembre
94%

Chicago, IL entro il 30 novembre
91%

Cincinnati, OH entro il 30 novembre
73%

Dallas, TX entro il 30 novembre
10%

Denver, CO entro il 30 novembre
91%

Detroit, MI entro il 30 novembre
72%

Indianapolis, IN entro il 30 novembre
85%

Kansas City, MO entro il 30 novembre
71%

Minneapolis, MN entro il 30 novembre
91%

Nashville, TN entro il 30 novembre
38%

New York City, NY entro il 30 novembre
72%

Philadelphia, PA entro il 30 novembre
42%

Pittsburgh, PA entro il 30 novembre
72%

Salt Lake City, UT entro il 30 novembre
89%

St. Louis, MO entro il 30 novembre
71%

Washington, DC entro il 30 novembre
44%
$3,509 Vol.

Buffalo, NY entro il 31 ottobre
74%

Denver, CO entro il 31 ottobre
72%

Minneapolis, MN entro il 31 ottobre
62%

Salt Lake City, UT entro il 31 ottobre
65%

Boston, MA entro il 15 novembre
70%

Buffalo, NY entro il 15 novembre
84%

Chicago, IL entro il 15 novembre
79%

Denver, CO entro il 15 novembre
90%

Detroit, MI entro il 15 novembre
80%

Indianapolis, IN entro il 15 novembre
66%

Kansas City, MO entro il 15 novembre
31%

Minneapolis, MN entro il 15 novembre
85%

Pittsburgh, PA entro il 15 novembre
71%

Salt Lake City, UT entro il 15 novembre
71%

Boston, MA entro il 30 novembre
71%

Buffalo, NY entro il 30 novembre
94%

Chicago, IL entro il 30 novembre
91%

Cincinnati, OH entro il 30 novembre
73%

Dallas, TX entro il 30 novembre
10%

Denver, CO entro il 30 novembre
91%

Detroit, MI entro il 30 novembre
72%

Indianapolis, IN entro il 30 novembre
85%

Kansas City, MO entro il 30 novembre
71%

Minneapolis, MN entro il 30 novembre
91%

Nashville, TN entro il 30 novembre
38%

New York City, NY entro il 30 novembre
72%

Philadelphia, PA entro il 30 novembre
42%

Pittsburgh, PA entro il 30 novembre
72%

Salt Lake City, UT entro il 30 novembre
89%

St. Louis, MO entro il 30 novembre
71%

Washington, DC entro il 30 novembre
44%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Risolutore
0x65070BE91...Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Risolutore
0x65070BE91...A strengthening El Niño, with NOAA assigning greater than 90% probability of a very strong event peaking this fall and winter, represents the dominant driver of early trader positioning on first snow timing. Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures have already reached +1.8°C in the Niño-3.4 region and continue rising, favoring above-normal temperatures across the western and central United States through November. This pattern typically suppresses early-season snowfall in lower elevations while allowing isolated high-elevation events in the northern Rockies as early as late September. NOAA’s September temperature outlook reinforces warmer-than-average conditions for much of the contiguous U.S., consistent with historical strong El Niño analogs. Traders will monitor upcoming CPC updates, short-range model consensus on cold-air intrusions, and any shifts in the Oceanic Niño Index for signals that could accelerate or further delay measurable snow at key resolution locations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato

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