Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 19, with closely matched implied probabilities for ≤22°C (52%) versus ≥32°C (50.5%), driven by ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF outputs ranging from 22-32°C. Recent 24-48 hour forecast updates, including timeanddate.com guidance as of April 16, project a cooldown to around 24°C amid overcast skies, passing showers (47% probability), and southerly winds boosting humidity to 66%, following 28-29°C highs on April 17-18 under ridging. Differentiating factors include potential frontal timing—early arrival caps highs below average April norms (~22°C) via cloud-induced cooling, while delayed moisture allows basin heat trapping and solar heating to push extremes; China Meteorological Administration updates and 12Z model runs expected within 24 hours may resolve this.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 19?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 19?
32°C or higher 49%
26°C 39%
27°C 39%
22°C or below 26%
NUOVO
NUOVO
19 apr 2026
22°C or below
26%
23°C
22%
24°C
22%
25°C
22%
26°C
22%
27°C
22%
28°C
21%
29°C
18%
30°C
10%
31°C
14%
32°C or higher
49%
32°C or higher 49%
26°C 39%
27°C 39%
22°C or below 26%
NUOVO
NUOVO
19 apr 2026
22°C or below
$30 Vol.
26%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$0 Vol.
22%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$10 Vol.
22%
27°C
$10 Vol.
22%
28°C
$0 Vol.
21%
29°C
$0 Vol.
18%
30°C
$10 Vol.
10%
31°C
$0 Vol.
14%
32°C or higher
$30 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 19, with closely matched implied probabilities for ≤22°C (52%) versus ≥32°C (50.5%), driven by ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF outputs ranging from 22-32°C. Recent 24-48 hour forecast updates, including timeanddate.com guidance as of April 16, project a cooldown to around 24°C amid overcast skies, passing showers (47% probability), and southerly winds boosting humidity to 66%, following 28-29°C highs on April 17-18 under ridging. Differentiating factors include potential frontal timing—early arrival caps highs below average April norms (~22°C) via cloud-induced cooling, while delayed moisture allows basin heat trapping and solar heating to push extremes; China Meteorological Administration updates and 12Z model runs expected within 24 hours may resolve this.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 19, with closely matched implied probabilities for ≤22°C (52%) versus ≥32°C (50.5%), driven by ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF outputs ranging from 22-32°C. Recent 24-48 hour forecast updates, including timeanddate.com guidance as of April 16, project a cooldown to around 24°C amid overcast skies, passing showers (47% probability), and southerly winds boosting humidity to 66%, following 28-29°C highs on April 17-18 under ridging. Differentiating factors include potential frontal timing—early arrival caps highs below average April norms (~22°C) via cloud-induced cooling, while delayed moisture allows basin heat trapping and solar heating to push extremes; China Meteorological Administration updates and 12Z model runs expected within 24 hours may resolve this.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$0Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 19, with closely matched implied probabilities for ≤22°C (52%) versus ≥32°C (50.5%), driven by ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF outputs ranging from 22-32°C. Recent 24-48 hour forecast updates, including timeanddate.com guidance as of April 16, project a cooldown to around 24°C amid overcast skies, passing showers (47% probability), and southerly winds boosting humidity to 66%, following 28-29°C highs on April 17-18 under ridging. Differentiating factors include potential frontal timing—early arrival caps highs below average April norms (~22°C) via cloud-induced cooling, while delayed moisture allows basin heat trapping and solar heating to push extremes; China Meteorological Administration updates and 12Z model runs expected within 24 hours may resolve this.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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