Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature in Chengdu on April 19, driven by real-time observations at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the market's official resolution station—peaking exactly at 30°C amid clear skies and light winds enhancing solar heating. This aligns with a multi-day warm anomaly above late-April climatology (typically 23-25°C highs), fueled by a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge advecting warm air masses, as confirmed by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) hourly data and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS converging on low-30s potential. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon sensor revision or overlooked microburst of insolation pushing to 31°C, though unlikely given stabilized readings; final CMA daily bulletin expected soon will lock resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 19?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 19?
30°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$125,715 Vol.
$125,715 Vol.
19 apr 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$125,715 Vol.
$125,715 Vol.
19 apr 2026
22°C or below
$7,429 Vol.
No
23°C
$5,860 Vol.
No
24°C
$6,886 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,307 Vol.
No
26°C
$7,356 Vol.
No
27°C
$8,271 Vol.
No
28°C
$10,665 Vol.
No
29°C
$20,813 Vol.
No
30°C
$29,872 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$14,129 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$9,126 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature in Chengdu on April 19, driven by real-time observations at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the market's official resolution station—peaking exactly at 30°C amid clear skies and light winds enhancing solar heating. This aligns with a multi-day warm anomaly above late-April climatology (typically 23-25°C highs), fueled by a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge advecting warm air masses, as confirmed by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) hourly data and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS converging on low-30s potential. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon sensor revision or overlooked microburst of insolation pushing to 31°C, though unlikely given stabilized readings; final CMA daily bulletin expected soon will lock resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
Volume
$125,715Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature in Chengdu on April 19, driven by real-time observations at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the market's official resolution station—peaking exactly at 30°C amid clear skies and light winds enhancing solar heating. This aligns with a multi-day warm anomaly above late-April climatology (typically 23-25°C highs), fueled by a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge advecting warm air masses, as confirmed by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) hourly data and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS converging on low-30s potential. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon sensor revision or overlooked microburst of insolation pushing to 31°C, though unlikely given stabilized readings; final CMA daily bulletin expected soon will lock resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$125,715Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature in Chengdu on April 19, driven by real-time observations at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the market's official resolution station—peaking exactly at 30°C amid clear skies and light winds enhancing solar heating. This aligns with a multi-day warm anomaly above late-April climatology (typically 23-25°C highs), fueled by a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge advecting warm air masses, as confirmed by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) hourly data and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS converging on low-30s potential. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon sensor revision or overlooked microburst of insolation pushing to 31°C, though unlikely given stabilized readings; final CMA daily bulletin expected soon will lock resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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