National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago O'Hare International Airport project a high temperature of 65–72°F on May 4, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability for 48°F or higher, as seasonably mild conditions prevail amid southerly winds and an upper-level ridge fostering robust diurnal heating. Recent observations show May 1–3 highs climbing from 46°F to near 60°F after an unseasonably cool start, with model consensus from GFS and NAM ensembles confirming low frost risk and ample sunshine. Trader sentiment reflects this skin-in-the-game alignment with NOAA guidance, though a rare northward surge of cool Canadian air could theoretically cap highs below 48°F if steering currents shift unexpectedly—unlikely per current synoptic patterns. Hourly updates from O'Hare observations will refine resolution by day's end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Chicago on May 4?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 4?
48°F or higher 100.0%
29°F or below <1%
30-31°F <1%
32-33°F <1%
$65,235 Vol.
$65,235 Vol.
4 mag 2026
29°F or below
No
30-31°F
No
32-33°F
No
34-35°F
No
36-37°F
No
38-39°F
No
40-41°F
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
No
48°F or higher
Yes
48°F or higher 100.0%
29°F or below <1%
30-31°F <1%
32-33°F <1%
$65,235 Vol.
$65,235 Vol.
4 mag 2026
29°F or below
$6,491 Vol.
No
30-31°F
$1,327 Vol.
No
32-33°F
$1,327 Vol.
No
34-35°F
$2,402 Vol.
No
36-37°F
$3,270 Vol.
No
38-39°F
$3,329 Vol.
No
40-41°F
$3,024 Vol.
No
42-43°F
$2,057 Vol.
No
44-45°F
$1,508 Vol.
No
46-47°F
$15,383 Vol.
No
48°F or higher
$25,120 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago O'Hare International Airport project a high temperature of 65–72°F on May 4, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability for 48°F or higher, as seasonably mild conditions prevail amid southerly winds and an upper-level ridge fostering robust diurnal heating. Recent observations show May 1–3 highs climbing from 46°F to near 60°F after an unseasonably cool start, with model consensus from GFS and NAM ensembles confirming low frost risk and ample sunshine. Trader sentiment reflects this skin-in-the-game alignment with NOAA guidance, though a rare northward surge of cool Canadian air could theoretically cap highs below 48°F if steering currents shift unexpectedly—unlikely per current synoptic patterns. Hourly updates from O'Hare observations will refine resolution by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$65,235Data di fine
4 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago O'Hare International Airport project a high temperature of 65–72°F on May 4, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability for 48°F or higher, as seasonably mild conditions prevail amid southerly winds and an upper-level ridge fostering robust diurnal heating. Recent observations show May 1–3 highs climbing from 46°F to near 60°F after an unseasonably cool start, with model consensus from GFS and NAM ensembles confirming low frost risk and ample sunshine. Trader sentiment reflects this skin-in-the-game alignment with NOAA guidance, though a rare northward surge of cool Canadian air could theoretically cap highs below 48°F if steering currents shift unexpectedly—unlikely per current synoptic patterns. Hourly updates from O'Hare observations will refine resolution by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$65,235Data di fine
4 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago O'Hare International Airport project a high temperature of 65–72°F on May 4, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability for 48°F or higher, as seasonably mild conditions prevail amid southerly winds and an upper-level ridge fostering robust diurnal heating. Recent observations show May 1–3 highs climbing from 46°F to near 60°F after an unseasonably cool start, with model consensus from GFS and NAM ensembles confirming low frost risk and ample sunshine. Trader sentiment reflects this skin-in-the-game alignment with NOAA guidance, though a rare northward surge of cool Canadian air could theoretically cap highs below 48°F if steering currents shift unexpectedly—unlikely per current synoptic patterns. Hourly updates from O'Hare observations will refine resolution by day's end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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