Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Turkish State Meteorological Service place the highest probability on afternoon maxima of 25–27°C for Istanbul on June 21, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities clustered in that range. Mid-June climatology shows typical highs near 25°C under moderate northerly flow and partial cloud cover, with sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Marmara providing thermal moderation that limits extreme excursions. Short-range model updates over the next 48 hours remain the key variable, as shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction could alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Traders are weighting these official guidance runs heavily ahead of resolution, acknowledging the inherent spread in high-resolution forecasts near coastal urban stations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Istanbul on June 21?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 21?
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$33,225 Vol.
$33,225 Vol.
21 giu 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$33,225 Vol.
$33,225 Vol.
21 giu 2026
21°C or below
$1,212 Vol.
No
22°C
$457 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,090 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,655 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,115 Vol.
No
26°C
$8,977 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$3,887 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,800 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,848 Vol.
No
30°C
$2,186 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$998 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Turkish State Meteorological Service place the highest probability on afternoon maxima of 25–27°C for Istanbul on June 21, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities clustered in that range. Mid-June climatology shows typical highs near 25°C under moderate northerly flow and partial cloud cover, with sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Marmara providing thermal moderation that limits extreme excursions. Short-range model updates over the next 48 hours remain the key variable, as shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction could alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Traders are weighting these official guidance runs heavily ahead of resolution, acknowledging the inherent spread in high-resolution forecasts near coastal urban stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jun 19, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$33,225Data di fine
21 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 19, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Turkish State Meteorological Service place the highest probability on afternoon maxima of 25–27°C for Istanbul on June 21, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities clustered in that range. Mid-June climatology shows typical highs near 25°C under moderate northerly flow and partial cloud cover, with sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Marmara providing thermal moderation that limits extreme excursions. Short-range model updates over the next 48 hours remain the key variable, as shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction could alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Traders are weighting these official guidance runs heavily ahead of resolution, acknowledging the inherent spread in high-resolution forecasts near coastal urban stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33,225Data di fine
21 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 19, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Turkish State Meteorological Service place the highest probability on afternoon maxima of 25–27°C for Istanbul on June 21, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities clustered in that range. Mid-June climatology shows typical highs near 25°C under moderate northerly flow and partial cloud cover, with sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Marmara providing thermal moderation that limits extreme excursions. Short-range model updates over the next 48 hours remain the key variable, as shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction could alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Traders are weighting these official guidance runs heavily ahead of resolution, acknowledging the inherent spread in high-resolution forecasts near coastal urban stations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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