Current ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a July 4 high near 30°C amid moderate rain and high humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon, with model consensus tempered by variable cloud cover and South China Sea moisture influx. These conditions limit peak solar heating and explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, as small shifts in precipitation timing or intensity can alter the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Subtropical July climatology supports baselines of 29–32°C, yet recent runs show slightly cooler guidance than seasonal averages due to expected convective activity. Traders weigh NHC-style regional model updates and local station data releases through July 3 as the key near-term catalysts that could resolve remaining uncertainty between the top outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Shenzhen il 4 luglio?
La temperatura più alta a Shenzhen il 4 luglio?
31°C 100.0%
23°C o inferiore <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$111,249 Vol.
$111,249 Vol.
4 lug 2026
23°C o inferiore
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Sì
32°C
No
33°C o superiore
No
31°C 100.0%
23°C o inferiore <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$111,249 Vol.
$111,249 Vol.
4 lug 2026
23°C o inferiore
$2,546 Vol.
No
24°C
$14,611 Vol.
No
25°C
$7,005 Vol.
No
26°C
$7,861 Vol.
No
27°C
$10,448 Vol.
No
28°C
$10,846 Vol.
No
29°C
$16,559 Vol.
No
30°C
$10,172 Vol.
No
31°C
$8,329 Vol.
Sì
32°C
$9,236 Vol.
No
33°C o superiore
$13,636 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a July 4 high near 30°C amid moderate rain and high humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon, with model consensus tempered by variable cloud cover and South China Sea moisture influx. These conditions limit peak solar heating and explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, as small shifts in precipitation timing or intensity can alter the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Subtropical July climatology supports baselines of 29–32°C, yet recent runs show slightly cooler guidance than seasonal averages due to expected convective activity. Traders weigh NHC-style regional model updates and local station data releases through July 3 as the key near-term catalysts that could resolve remaining uncertainty between the top outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$111,249Data di fine
4 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a July 4 high near 30°C amid moderate rain and high humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon, with model consensus tempered by variable cloud cover and South China Sea moisture influx. These conditions limit peak solar heating and explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, as small shifts in precipitation timing or intensity can alter the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Subtropical July climatology supports baselines of 29–32°C, yet recent runs show slightly cooler guidance than seasonal averages due to expected convective activity. Traders weigh NHC-style regional model updates and local station data releases through July 3 as the key near-term catalysts that could resolve remaining uncertainty between the top outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$111,249Data di fine
4 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Current ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a July 4 high near 30°C amid moderate rain and high humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon, with model consensus tempered by variable cloud cover and South China Sea moisture influx. These conditions limit peak solar heating and explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, as small shifts in precipitation timing or intensity can alter the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Subtropical July climatology supports baselines of 29–32°C, yet recent runs show slightly cooler guidance than seasonal averages due to expected convective activity. Traders weigh NHC-style regional model updates and local station data releases through July 3 as the key near-term catalysts that could resolve remaining uncertainty between the top outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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