Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a 23°C high temperature in Taipei on May 1, 2026, backed by real-time Central Weather Administration (CWA) observations at the Songshan Airport station, which recorded a peak of 23°C amid persistent cloud cover from a lingering frontal system. This suppressed solar insolation and daytime heating well below May climatological averages of 28–29°C, with northeasterly winds further cooling the region; CWA's latest ensemble forecasts projected 20–25°C, aligning precisely with measurements as evening temperatures decline. While improbable late-afternoon clearing and warm-air advection could challenge this, current diurnal trends and model consensus make higher readings unlikely, with final daily data from CWA expected to confirm resolution soon.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Taipei on May 1?
Highest temperature in Taipei on May 1?
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$60,567 Vol.
$60,567 Vol.
1 mag 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$60,567 Vol.
$60,567 Vol.
1 mag 2026
18°C or below
$180 Vol.
No
19°C
$135 Vol.
No
20°C
$506 Vol.
No
21°C
$2,559 Vol.
No
22°C
$10,542 Vol.
No
23°C
$13,131 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$8,035 Vol.
No
25°C
$7,237 Vol.
No
26°C
$5,315 Vol.
No
27°C
$6,052 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$6,875 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a 23°C high temperature in Taipei on May 1, 2026, backed by real-time Central Weather Administration (CWA) observations at the Songshan Airport station, which recorded a peak of 23°C amid persistent cloud cover from a lingering frontal system. This suppressed solar insolation and daytime heating well below May climatological averages of 28–29°C, with northeasterly winds further cooling the region; CWA's latest ensemble forecasts projected 20–25°C, aligning precisely with measurements as evening temperatures decline. While improbable late-afternoon clearing and warm-air advection could challenge this, current diurnal trends and model consensus make higher readings unlikely, with final daily data from CWA expected to confirm resolution soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$60,567Data di fine
1 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:32 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a 23°C high temperature in Taipei on May 1, 2026, backed by real-time Central Weather Administration (CWA) observations at the Songshan Airport station, which recorded a peak of 23°C amid persistent cloud cover from a lingering frontal system. This suppressed solar insolation and daytime heating well below May climatological averages of 28–29°C, with northeasterly winds further cooling the region; CWA's latest ensemble forecasts projected 20–25°C, aligning precisely with measurements as evening temperatures decline. While improbable late-afternoon clearing and warm-air advection could challenge this, current diurnal trends and model consensus make higher readings unlikely, with final daily data from CWA expected to confirm resolution soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$60,567Data di fine
1 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:32 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a 23°C high temperature in Taipei on May 1, 2026, backed by real-time Central Weather Administration (CWA) observations at the Songshan Airport station, which recorded a peak of 23°C amid persistent cloud cover from a lingering frontal system. This suppressed solar insolation and daytime heating well below May climatological averages of 28–29°C, with northeasterly winds further cooling the region; CWA's latest ensemble forecasts projected 20–25°C, aligning precisely with measurements as evening temperatures decline. While improbable late-afternoon clearing and warm-air advection could challenge this, current diurnal trends and model consensus make higher readings unlikely, with final daily data from CWA expected to confirm resolution soon.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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