Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 13, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast maximum of 26°C amid partly cloudy skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure system promoting daytime heating. Current observational trends show temperatures already climbing into the mid-20s°C during peak solar insolation, aligning with model consensus from JMA ensembles that indicate minimal cooling risk before late afternoon. May climatology for Tokyo features average highs of 23°C but frequent exceedances above 26°C under similar synoptic patterns, amplified by recent urban heat trends. A realistic challenge would require sudden convective showers or a sharp northerly wind shift to suppress peak heating to 25°C; JMA's next hourly update will refine this outlook.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 13?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 13?
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$71,850 Vol.
$71,850 Vol.
13 mag 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
Yes
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$71,850 Vol.
$71,850 Vol.
13 mag 2026
16°C or below
$1,176 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,548 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,166 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,016 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,325 Vol.
No
21°C
$2,275 Vol.
No
22°C
$7,195 Vol.
No
23°C
$7,947 Vol.
No
24°C
$8,200 Vol.
No
25°C
$23,913 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$16,089 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 13, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast maximum of 26°C amid partly cloudy skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure system promoting daytime heating. Current observational trends show temperatures already climbing into the mid-20s°C during peak solar insolation, aligning with model consensus from JMA ensembles that indicate minimal cooling risk before late afternoon. May climatology for Tokyo features average highs of 23°C but frequent exceedances above 26°C under similar synoptic patterns, amplified by recent urban heat trends. A realistic challenge would require sudden convective showers or a sharp northerly wind shift to suppress peak heating to 25°C; JMA's next hourly update will refine this outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 11, 2026, 1:00 AM ET
Volume
$71,850Data di fine
13 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 11, 2026, 1:00 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 13, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast maximum of 26°C amid partly cloudy skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure system promoting daytime heating. Current observational trends show temperatures already climbing into the mid-20s°C during peak solar insolation, aligning with model consensus from JMA ensembles that indicate minimal cooling risk before late afternoon. May climatology for Tokyo features average highs of 23°C but frequent exceedances above 26°C under similar synoptic patterns, amplified by recent urban heat trends. A realistic challenge would require sudden convective showers or a sharp northerly wind shift to suppress peak heating to 25°C; JMA's next hourly update will refine this outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$71,850Data di fine
13 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 11, 2026, 1:00 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 13, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast maximum of 26°C amid partly cloudy skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure system promoting daytime heating. Current observational trends show temperatures already climbing into the mid-20s°C during peak solar insolation, aligning with model consensus from JMA ensembles that indicate minimal cooling risk before late afternoon. May climatology for Tokyo features average highs of 23°C but frequent exceedances above 26°C under similar synoptic patterns, amplified by recent urban heat trends. A realistic challenge would require sudden convective showers or a sharp northerly wind shift to suppress peak heating to 25°C; JMA's next hourly update will refine this outlook.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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