**Trader consensus at 96.5% against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic reflects the swift containment of the only notable cluster this year—the MV Hondius Andes virus outbreak—and the pathogen’s limited pandemic potential.** The April–May 2026 shipboard event produced 13 cases and three deaths from the Andes strain, the sole hantavirus capable of limited person-to-person spread, but international contact tracing, 42-day quarantines, and monitoring across multiple countries ended with no sustained transmission by early July. Official surveillance through August 2026 shows only sporadic rodent-linked cases, consistent with historical patterns of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. Andes virus exhibits low transmissibility (estimated R0 ~1.2), and its high case-fatality rate tends to interrupt chains of spread. While zoonotic spillovers or a more transmissible variant could theoretically alter trajectories, current epidemiological data and containment outcomes support the market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPandemia di Hantavirus nel 2026?
Pandemia di Hantavirus nel 2026?
Sì
4% probabilità
$17,903,677 Vol.
$17,903,677 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$17,903,677 Vol.
$17,903,677 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus at 96.5% against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic reflects the swift containment of the only notable cluster this year—the MV Hondius Andes virus outbreak—and the pathogen’s limited pandemic potential.** The April–May 2026 shipboard event produced 13 cases and three deaths from the Andes strain, the sole hantavirus capable of limited person-to-person spread, but international contact tracing, 42-day quarantines, and monitoring across multiple countries ended with no sustained transmission by early July. Official surveillance through August 2026 shows only sporadic rodent-linked cases, consistent with historical patterns of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. Andes virus exhibits low transmissibility (estimated R0 ~1.2), and its high case-fatality rate tends to interrupt chains of spread. While zoonotic spillovers or a more transmissible variant could theoretically alter trajectories, current epidemiological data and containment outcomes support the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$17,903,677Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus at 96.5% against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic reflects the swift containment of the only notable cluster this year—the MV Hondius Andes virus outbreak—and the pathogen’s limited pandemic potential.** The April–May 2026 shipboard event produced 13 cases and three deaths from the Andes strain, the sole hantavirus capable of limited person-to-person spread, but international contact tracing, 42-day quarantines, and monitoring across multiple countries ended with no sustained transmission by early July. Official surveillance through August 2026 shows only sporadic rodent-linked cases, consistent with historical patterns of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. Andes virus exhibits low transmissibility (estimated R0 ~1.2), and its high case-fatality rate tends to interrupt chains of spread. While zoonotic spillovers or a more transmissible variant could theoretically alter trajectories, current epidemiological data and containment outcomes support the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,903,677Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus at 96.5% against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic reflects the swift containment of the only notable cluster this year—the MV Hondius Andes virus outbreak—and the pathogen’s limited pandemic potential.** The April–May 2026 shipboard event produced 13 cases and three deaths from the Andes strain, the sole hantavirus capable of limited person-to-person spread, but international contact tracing, 42-day quarantines, and monitoring across multiple countries ended with no sustained transmission by early July. Official surveillance through August 2026 shows only sporadic rodent-linked cases, consistent with historical patterns of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. Andes virus exhibits low transmissibility (estimated R0 ~1.2), and its high case-fatality rate tends to interrupt chains of spread. While zoonotic spillovers or a more transmissible variant could theoretically alter trajectories, current epidemiological data and containment outcomes support the market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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