Forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate moderating conditions for Madrid on August 24, with a southwest flow and increased cloud cover expected to limit radiative cooling overnight. This follows several days of highs near 33°C and supports minimum temperatures clustered around 18–20°C, near the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 18.7°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread but highlights sensitivity to exact wind speeds and cloud timing, which can shift the overnight low by 1–2°C. The closely matched market probabilities around the 18°C threshold reflect this narrow uncertainty range and typical late-summer variability in the Madrid basin. Updated runs from national meteorological agencies over the next 24–48 hours will provide the key data points for resolution.