The current large Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, driven by the Bundibugyo virus and exceeding 7,000 confirmed cases with roughly 3,600 deaths across seven provinces as of mid-September 2026, has not produced sustained community transmission beyond the region despite a public health emergency of international concern declaration. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows limited exports to Uganda and a single case in France, with no evidence of wider global chains, reflecting the strain’s lower transmissibility relative to Zaire ebolavirus, intensive contact tracing, and response scaling even amid conflict-related access barriers. This containment, combined with the late timing in the calendar year, underpins the market’s 97.6% implied probability of no pandemic. Realistic shifts could still arise from undetected exportation into areas with weak surveillance or a surge in cases overwhelming isolation capacity before December.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
2% probabilità
$765,921 Vol.
$765,921 Vol.
31 dic 2026
2% probabilità
$765,921 Vol.
$765,921 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The current large Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, driven by the Bundibugyo virus and exceeding 7,000 confirmed cases with roughly 3,600 deaths across seven provinces as of mid-September 2026, has not produced sustained community transmission beyond the region despite a public health emergency of international concern declaration. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows limited exports to Uganda and a single case in France, with no evidence of wider global chains, reflecting the strain’s lower transmissibility relative to Zaire ebolavirus, intensive contact tracing, and response scaling even amid conflict-related access barriers. This containment, combined with the late timing in the calendar year, underpins the market’s 97.6% implied probability of no pandemic. Realistic shifts could still arise from undetected exportation into areas with weak surveillance or a surge in cases overwhelming isolation capacity before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$765,921Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The current large Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, driven by the Bundibugyo virus and exceeding 7,000 confirmed cases with roughly 3,600 deaths across seven provinces as of mid-September 2026, has not produced sustained community transmission beyond the region despite a public health emergency of international concern declaration. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows limited exports to Uganda and a single case in France, with no evidence of wider global chains, reflecting the strain’s lower transmissibility relative to Zaire ebolavirus, intensive contact tracing, and response scaling even amid conflict-related access barriers. This containment, combined with the late timing in the calendar year, underpins the market’s 97.6% implied probability of no pandemic. Realistic shifts could still arise from undetected exportation into areas with weak surveillance or a surge in cases overwhelming isolation capacity before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$765,921Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The current large Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, driven by the Bundibugyo virus and exceeding 7,000 confirmed cases with roughly 3,600 deaths across seven provinces as of mid-September 2026, has not produced sustained community transmission beyond the region despite a public health emergency of international concern declaration. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows limited exports to Uganda and a single case in France, with no evidence of wider global chains, reflecting the strain’s lower transmissibility relative to Zaire ebolavirus, intensive contact tracing, and response scaling even amid conflict-related access barriers. This containment, combined with the late timing in the calendar year, underpins the market’s 97.6% implied probability of no pandemic. Realistic shifts could still arise from undetected exportation into areas with weak surveillance or a surge in cases overwhelming isolation capacity before December.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti