Ongoing containment of the 2026 Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability against a pandemic designation. As of early August, roughly 3,800 laboratory-confirmed cases and 1,700 deaths have been reported, concentrated in eastern DRC with limited cross-border exportations and no sustained community transmission elsewhere. CDC and WHO assessments cite low global risk due to the virus's requirement for direct contact, robust surveillance, contact tracing, and isolation protocols that have prevented wider dissemination. Historical filovirus patterns further support this view, as prior Ebola events rarely escalate beyond regional epidemics without major breakdowns in international controls. Upcoming weekly case reports and model updates from health agencies remain the key variables that could alter localized dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
$676,469 Vol.
$676,469 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$676,469 Vol.
$676,469 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing containment of the 2026 Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability against a pandemic designation. As of early August, roughly 3,800 laboratory-confirmed cases and 1,700 deaths have been reported, concentrated in eastern DRC with limited cross-border exportations and no sustained community transmission elsewhere. CDC and WHO assessments cite low global risk due to the virus's requirement for direct contact, robust surveillance, contact tracing, and isolation protocols that have prevented wider dissemination. Historical filovirus patterns further support this view, as prior Ebola events rarely escalate beyond regional epidemics without major breakdowns in international controls. Upcoming weekly case reports and model updates from health agencies remain the key variables that could alter localized dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$676,469Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing containment of the 2026 Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability against a pandemic designation. As of early August, roughly 3,800 laboratory-confirmed cases and 1,700 deaths have been reported, concentrated in eastern DRC with limited cross-border exportations and no sustained community transmission elsewhere. CDC and WHO assessments cite low global risk due to the virus's requirement for direct contact, robust surveillance, contact tracing, and isolation protocols that have prevented wider dissemination. Historical filovirus patterns further support this view, as prior Ebola events rarely escalate beyond regional epidemics without major breakdowns in international controls. Upcoming weekly case reports and model updates from health agencies remain the key variables that could alter localized dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$676,469Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing containment of the 2026 Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability against a pandemic designation. As of early August, roughly 3,800 laboratory-confirmed cases and 1,700 deaths have been reported, concentrated in eastern DRC with limited cross-border exportations and no sustained community transmission elsewhere. CDC and WHO assessments cite low global risk due to the virus's requirement for direct contact, robust surveillance, contact tracing, and isolation protocols that have prevented wider dissemination. Historical filovirus patterns further support this view, as prior Ebola events rarely escalate beyond regional epidemics without major breakdowns in international controls. Upcoming weekly case reports and model updates from health agencies remain the key variables that could alter localized dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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