**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 94.5% reflects the absence of any WHO-declared pandemic through September 2026, despite active surveillance and multiple outbreaks.** The largest event—an ongoing Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s Ituri province, with spread to neighboring areas and limited imported cases—prompted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in May but remains regionally contained with thousands of cases and no sustained global transmission. Other monitored threats, including mpox, cholera, and dengue clusters, have not met pandemic criteria of widespread international impact. Official case data, model outputs, and response metrics through early September show no exponential global acceleration. A late-year emergence of a novel, highly transmissible pathogen or rapid international escalation of the current Ebola event could still shift odds, though historical patterns and current containment measures make such outcomes low-probability in the remaining months.