Recent successful catches and the first reuse of a Super Heavy booster in May 2026, alongside rapid iteration on Starship V3 hardware with advanced avionics for high flight rates, form the core driver behind the 77.5% market-implied odds for full reusability before 2028. Multiple integrated test flights have validated controlled reentries, Raptor engine relights, and tower returns, building directly on Falcon 9’s rapid-reuse model while addressing upper-stage challenges observed in earlier 2026 flights. Upcoming V3 launches, scaled in-space propellant transfer demonstrations, and efforts to increase cadence provide key near-term catalysts that could further solidify trader consensus on achieving both-stage recovery and reuse within the remaining timeline.