SpaceX’s recent Super Heavy booster catches and first reuse have anchored trader optimism for Starship achieving full reusability—both stages returning to the launch tower and flying again—before 2028. Multiple 2025–2026 flight tests demonstrated controlled reentries, Raptor relights, and tower-arm recoveries, while V3 vehicles with upgraded avionics target rapid turnaround. Persistent upper-stage hurdles, including heat-shield performance and reliable orbital returns, keep the outcome from exceeding 70 percent implied probability. Key near-term catalysts include Flight 13’s expected booster reuse attempt, Starship catch demonstrations, and in-space propellant-transfer milestones, all of which could shift sentiment if timelines hold or slip.