Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with <5 commanding a 60% implied probability, driven by the complete absence of flights through mid-April despite ambitious cadence goals of 25 annually. The primary catalyst is repeated delays for Flight 12—the debut of the more powerful Version 3 Starship and Super Heavy booster—now targeting early May after slipping from March targets amid preflight testing and likely FAA licensing hurdles. While 2025 saw five successful tests reaching space, historical ramp-up challenges, hardware iterations, and regulatory scrutiny temper expectations for acceleration, though a smooth Flight 12 could boost mid-range outcomes like 5-6 (18.5%) toward year-end orbital refueling demos or Florida site activation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
Quanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
<5 60%
5-6 18%
9-10 14.7%
>16 5.5%
$440,077 Vol.
$440,077 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
60%
5-6
18%
7-8
4%
9-10
15%
11-12
4%
13-14
5%
15-16
2%
>16
5%
<5 60%
5-6 18%
9-10 14.7%
>16 5.5%
$440,077 Vol.
$440,077 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
$87,563 Vol.
60%
5-6
$106,732 Vol.
18%
7-8
$151,197 Vol.
4%
9-10
$55,090 Vol.
15%
11-12
$3,100 Vol.
4%
13-14
$3,995 Vol.
5%
15-16
$23,877 Vol.
2%
>16
$8,524 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with <5 commanding a 60% implied probability, driven by the complete absence of flights through mid-April despite ambitious cadence goals of 25 annually. The primary catalyst is repeated delays for Flight 12—the debut of the more powerful Version 3 Starship and Super Heavy booster—now targeting early May after slipping from March targets amid preflight testing and likely FAA licensing hurdles. While 2025 saw five successful tests reaching space, historical ramp-up challenges, hardware iterations, and regulatory scrutiny temper expectations for acceleration, though a smooth Flight 12 could boost mid-range outcomes like 5-6 (18.5%) toward year-end orbital refueling demos or Florida site activation.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$440,077Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with <5 commanding a 60% implied probability, driven by the complete absence of flights through mid-April despite ambitious cadence goals of 25 annually. The primary catalyst is repeated delays for Flight 12—the debut of the more powerful Version 3 Starship and Super Heavy booster—now targeting early May after slipping from March targets amid preflight testing and likely FAA licensing hurdles. While 2025 saw five successful tests reaching space, historical ramp-up challenges, hardware iterations, and regulatory scrutiny temper expectations for acceleration, though a smooth Flight 12 could boost mid-range outcomes like 5-6 (18.5%) toward year-end orbital refueling demos or Florida site activation.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$440,077Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with <5 commanding a 60% implied probability, driven by the complete absence of flights through mid-April despite ambitious cadence goals of 25 annually. The primary catalyst is repeated delays for Flight 12—the debut of the more powerful Version 3 Starship and Super Heavy booster—now targeting early May after slipping from March targets amid preflight testing and likely FAA licensing hurdles. While 2025 saw five successful tests reaching space, historical ramp-up challenges, hardware iterations, and regulatory scrutiny temper expectations for acceleration, though a smooth Flight 12 could boost mid-range outcomes like 5-6 (18.5%) toward year-end orbital refueling demos or Florida site activation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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