Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA surveys has identified no near-Earth objects large enough—roughly 20–50 meters across—to produce a 100-kiloton airburst or impact in 2026, supporting the market’s 94.2% implied probability for no such event. Continuous optical, radar, and Sentry system tracking, combined with historical bolide data showing these energies occur only once every few centuries on average, underpins strong trader consensus. Recent close approaches, such as 2026 JH2, have all been ruled out as threats. Residual uncertainty remains from potentially undiscovered small objects or late trajectory revisions, though ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end are expected to further tighten constraints.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA surveys has identified no near-Earth objects large enough—roughly 20–50 meters across—to produce a 100-kiloton airburst or impact in 2026, supporting the market’s 94.2% implied probability for no such event. Continuous optical, radar, and Sentry system tracking, combined with historical bolide data showing these energies occur only once every few centuries on average, underpins strong trader consensus. Recent close approaches, such as 2026 JH2, have all been ruled out as threats. Residual uncertainty remains from potentially undiscovered small objects or late trajectory revisions, though ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end are expected to further tighten constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$7,871Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA surveys has identified no near-Earth objects large enough—roughly 20–50 meters across—to produce a 100-kiloton airburst or impact in 2026, supporting the market’s 94.2% implied probability for no such event. Continuous optical, radar, and Sentry system tracking, combined with historical bolide data showing these energies occur only once every few centuries on average, underpins strong trader consensus. Recent close approaches, such as 2026 JH2, have all been ruled out as threats. Residual uncertainty remains from potentially undiscovered small objects or late trajectory revisions, though ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end are expected to further tighten constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$7,871Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA surveys has identified no near-Earth objects large enough—roughly 20–50 meters across—to produce a 100-kiloton airburst or impact in 2026, supporting the market’s 94.2% implied probability for no such event. Continuous optical, radar, and Sentry system tracking, combined with historical bolide data showing these energies occur only once every few centuries on average, underpins strong trader consensus. Recent close approaches, such as 2026 JH2, have all been ruled out as threats. Residual uncertainty remains from potentially undiscovered small objects or late trajectory revisions, though ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end are expected to further tighten constraints.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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