NASA and ESA near-Earth object surveys, including CNEOS Sentry monitoring, have identified no asteroids or meteoroids on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons of energy in 2026. Extensive optical, radar, and infrared tracking of known objects rules out any sizable impactors, while historical bolide data indicate events of this scale occur only once every several decades to centuries on average. A recent uptick in smaller fireballs has produced no airbursts approaching the threshold. Residual uncertainty stems from potentially undiscovered sub-20-meter objects, though continuous model updates through year-end further constrain that slim possibility. Trader consensus aligns with this low baseline risk.