NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and Sentry impact-monitoring system report no cataloged near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton airburst or surface strike through the end of 2026. Continuous optical surveys such as Pan-STARRS, ATLAS, and radar tracking have identified and ruled out the vast majority of objects above roughly 140 meters, while the low historical frequency of megaton-scale or even 100 kt events—combined with expanding detection coverage—supports the market’s 95.5% implied probability of “No.” Undiscovered meter- to decameter-scale impactors remain theoretically possible, though any such late discovery would require rapid confirmation before December 31 resolution and is considered statistically improbable given current observational baselines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and Sentry impact-monitoring system report no cataloged near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton airburst or surface strike through the end of 2026. Continuous optical surveys such as Pan-STARRS, ATLAS, and radar tracking have identified and ruled out the vast majority of objects above roughly 140 meters, while the low historical frequency of megaton-scale or even 100 kt events—combined with expanding detection coverage—supports the market’s 95.5% implied probability of “No.” Undiscovered meter- to decameter-scale impactors remain theoretically possible, though any such late discovery would require rapid confirmation before December 31 resolution and is considered statistically improbable given current observational baselines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,824Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and Sentry impact-monitoring system report no cataloged near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton airburst or surface strike through the end of 2026. Continuous optical surveys such as Pan-STARRS, ATLAS, and radar tracking have identified and ruled out the vast majority of objects above roughly 140 meters, while the low historical frequency of megaton-scale or even 100 kt events—combined with expanding detection coverage—supports the market’s 95.5% implied probability of “No.” Undiscovered meter- to decameter-scale impactors remain theoretically possible, though any such late discovery would require rapid confirmation before December 31 resolution and is considered statistically improbable given current observational baselines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,824Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and Sentry impact-monitoring system report no cataloged near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton airburst or surface strike through the end of 2026. Continuous optical surveys such as Pan-STARRS, ATLAS, and radar tracking have identified and ruled out the vast majority of objects above roughly 140 meters, while the low historical frequency of megaton-scale or even 100 kt events—combined with expanding detection coverage—supports the market’s 95.5% implied probability of “No.” Undiscovered meter- to decameter-scale impactors remain theoretically possible, though any such late discovery would require rapid confirmation before December 31 resolution and is considered statistically improbable given current observational baselines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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