NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, lists no credible threats of a bolide producing 100 kilotons TNT equivalent energy in 2026, with only two minuscule-probability virtual impactors—tiny objects under 20 meters in diameter at odds below 0.004% each. Comprehensive NEO surveys detect nearly all potentially hazardous objects larger than 30 meters, rendering undetected massive strikes improbable, while first-quarter 2026 fireball data shows a surge in small events but none exceeding 30 tons TNT equivalent. Trader consensus at 94.7% "No" reflects this robust monitoring amid historical rarity of such airbursts every few years. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen small meteoroid (~15 meters) evading detection for a high-energy airburst, with ongoing CNEOS sensor updates providing key resolution data through year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, lists no credible threats of a bolide producing 100 kilotons TNT equivalent energy in 2026, with only two minuscule-probability virtual impactors—tiny objects under 20 meters in diameter at odds below 0.004% each. Comprehensive NEO surveys detect nearly all potentially hazardous objects larger than 30 meters, rendering undetected massive strikes improbable, while first-quarter 2026 fireball data shows a surge in small events but none exceeding 30 tons TNT equivalent. Trader consensus at 94.7% "No" reflects this robust monitoring amid historical rarity of such airbursts every few years. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen small meteoroid (~15 meters) evading detection for a high-energy airburst, with ongoing CNEOS sensor updates providing key resolution data through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$7,022Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, lists no credible threats of a bolide producing 100 kilotons TNT equivalent energy in 2026, with only two minuscule-probability virtual impactors—tiny objects under 20 meters in diameter at odds below 0.004% each. Comprehensive NEO surveys detect nearly all potentially hazardous objects larger than 30 meters, rendering undetected massive strikes improbable, while first-quarter 2026 fireball data shows a surge in small events but none exceeding 30 tons TNT equivalent. Trader consensus at 94.7% "No" reflects this robust monitoring amid historical rarity of such airbursts every few years. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen small meteoroid (~15 meters) evading detection for a high-energy airburst, with ongoing CNEOS sensor updates providing key resolution data through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$7,022Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, lists no credible threats of a bolide producing 100 kilotons TNT equivalent energy in 2026, with only two minuscule-probability virtual impactors—tiny objects under 20 meters in diameter at odds below 0.004% each. Comprehensive NEO surveys detect nearly all potentially hazardous objects larger than 30 meters, rendering undetected massive strikes improbable, while first-quarter 2026 fireball data shows a surge in small events but none exceeding 30 tons TNT equivalent. Trader consensus at 94.7% "No" reflects this robust monitoring amid historical rarity of such airbursts every few years. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen small meteoroid (~15 meters) evading detection for a high-energy airburst, with ongoing CNEOS sensor updates providing key resolution data through year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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