Ongoing monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA shows no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons of impact energy during 2026. Recent close approaches, including asteroid 2026 JH2 passing safely at roughly 56,000 miles, involve objects too small to reach this threshold, consistent with the market’s 96% implied probability for no strike. Historical data indicate such energetic events are rare, occurring roughly once per century or less, while current catalogs of larger asteroids reveal none aligned for atmospheric entry this year. New detections remain possible but would require an undetected object exceeding typical survey sensitivity limits; ongoing observations through year-end will further refine this assessment.