Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for no meteor airburst or bolide with total impact energy of 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater in 2026, aligned with NASA's CNEOS fireball data logging no qualifying events through mid-April despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—such as the March 17 Ohio event at 0.25 kt and others under 1 kt. This uptick in detections, potentially from enhanced sporadic meteoroid flux or observational biases, has nudged Yes odds higher from earlier ~35% levels, but baseline meteoroid environment models suggest only 0.3–0.5 such events annually worldwide. Coverage relies on U.S. government satellite sensors with incomplete global reach, introducing uncertainty; continuous monitoring and meteor shower peaks later in 2026 could shift probabilities further.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSciopero di meteore da 5kt nel 2026?
Sciopero di meteore da 5kt nel 2026?
Sì
$291,943 Vol.
$291,943 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$291,943 Vol.
$291,943 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for no meteor airburst or bolide with total impact energy of 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater in 2026, aligned with NASA's CNEOS fireball data logging no qualifying events through mid-April despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—such as the March 17 Ohio event at 0.25 kt and others under 1 kt. This uptick in detections, potentially from enhanced sporadic meteoroid flux or observational biases, has nudged Yes odds higher from earlier ~35% levels, but baseline meteoroid environment models suggest only 0.3–0.5 such events annually worldwide. Coverage relies on U.S. government satellite sensors with incomplete global reach, introducing uncertainty; continuous monitoring and meteor shower peaks later in 2026 could shift probabilities further.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$291,943Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for no meteor airburst or bolide with total impact energy of 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater in 2026, aligned with NASA's CNEOS fireball data logging no qualifying events through mid-April despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—such as the March 17 Ohio event at 0.25 kt and others under 1 kt. This uptick in detections, potentially from enhanced sporadic meteoroid flux or observational biases, has nudged Yes odds higher from earlier ~35% levels, but baseline meteoroid environment models suggest only 0.3–0.5 such events annually worldwide. Coverage relies on U.S. government satellite sensors with incomplete global reach, introducing uncertainty; continuous monitoring and meteor shower peaks later in 2026 could shift probabilities further.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$291,943Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for no meteor airburst or bolide with total impact energy of 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater in 2026, aligned with NASA's CNEOS fireball data logging no qualifying events through mid-April despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—such as the March 17 Ohio event at 0.25 kt and others under 1 kt. This uptick in detections, potentially from enhanced sporadic meteoroid flux or observational biases, has nudged Yes odds higher from earlier ~35% levels, but baseline meteoroid environment models suggest only 0.3–0.5 such events annually worldwide. Coverage relies on U.S. government satellite sensors with incomplete global reach, introducing uncertainty; continuous monitoring and meteor shower peaks later in 2026 could shift probabilities further.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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