No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA and ESA Sentry or Scout systems pose a 5 kt or greater impact risk during 2026, driving the 74.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Current catalogs show only small, distant approaches well below the energy threshold, consistent with refined orbital data that have lowered residual uncertainties without flagging new threats. While historical fireball records indicate Earth experiences objects releasing roughly 5 kt annually on average, the absence of confirmed candidates this year—coupled with improving detection of meter-scale impactors—supports trader consensus favoring no qualifying airburst. Ongoing monitoring through year-end remains the key variable that could alter odds if an unexpected discovery emerges.