Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% implied probability for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—historically occurring roughly once every 20–50 years globally along major subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan, and Sumatra—and the absence of reliable short-term precursors, as affirmed by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring. No M9+ quake has struck since the 2011 Tohoku event (M9.1), and 2026's largest were M7.4 off Indonesia and M7.3 near Vanuatu, with no unusual seismic swarms or strain buildup signaling an imminent rupture. Recent USGS studies on Cascadia highlight a mere 10–15% chance of M9 over 50 years, negligible for the ~8-month window. Continuous real-time seismic data from global networks underpins this positioning, though sudden fault locking could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato9.0 o superiore prima del 2027?
9.0 o superiore prima del 2027?
Sì
$177,661 Vol.
$177,661 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$177,661 Vol.
$177,661 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% implied probability for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—historically occurring roughly once every 20–50 years globally along major subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan, and Sumatra—and the absence of reliable short-term precursors, as affirmed by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring. No M9+ quake has struck since the 2011 Tohoku event (M9.1), and 2026's largest were M7.4 off Indonesia and M7.3 near Vanuatu, with no unusual seismic swarms or strain buildup signaling an imminent rupture. Recent USGS studies on Cascadia highlight a mere 10–15% chance of M9 over 50 years, negligible for the ~8-month window. Continuous real-time seismic data from global networks underpins this positioning, though sudden fault locking could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$177,661Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% implied probability for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—historically occurring roughly once every 20–50 years globally along major subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan, and Sumatra—and the absence of reliable short-term precursors, as affirmed by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring. No M9+ quake has struck since the 2011 Tohoku event (M9.1), and 2026's largest were M7.4 off Indonesia and M7.3 near Vanuatu, with no unusual seismic swarms or strain buildup signaling an imminent rupture. Recent USGS studies on Cascadia highlight a mere 10–15% chance of M9 over 50 years, negligible for the ~8-month window. Continuous real-time seismic data from global networks underpins this positioning, though sudden fault locking could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$177,661Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% implied probability for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—historically occurring roughly once every 20–50 years globally along major subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan, and Sumatra—and the absence of reliable short-term precursors, as affirmed by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring. No M9+ quake has struck since the 2011 Tohoku event (M9.1), and 2026's largest were M7.4 off Indonesia and M7.3 near Vanuatu, with no unusual seismic swarms or strain buildup signaling an imminent rupture. Recent USGS studies on Cascadia highlight a mere 10–15% chance of M9 over 50 years, negligible for the ~8-month window. Continuous real-time seismic data from global networks underpins this positioning, though sudden fault locking could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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