Traders assign a 93.8% implied probability that no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake will occur before 2027 because such events remain exceptionally rare, with only five recorded globally since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tōhoku event. USGS data and recurrence modeling indicate one to three M9+ megathrust quakes per century at major subduction zones, driven by centuries-long strain accumulation along plate boundaries such as the Japan Trench or Cascadia. Recent 2025–2026 activity, including multiple magnitude 7–7.8 events, aligns with typical annual rates of roughly one M8+ quake and shows no accelerated clustering or precursory signals that would elevate odds. While sudden rupture on a locked subduction segment could still produce an M9+ before year-end, current monitoring data and historical patterns strongly support the market consensus.