Global estimates place M9+ earthquakes at roughly one to three per century on average, reflecting multicentury recurrence intervals along major subduction zones and the absence of any such event since the 2011 Tohoku quake. With only about 18 months remaining until 2027 and 2026 seismicity limited to events below M8, USGS records and paleoseismic data reinforce trader consensus on the low near-term odds. Realistic challenges include an unexpected full-margin rupture on zones such as Cascadia, where time-independent models assign roughly 10-15% probability over 50 years, though current monitoring shows no accelerating precursors that would alter the short-term outlook.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$244,735 Vol.
$244,735 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$244,735 Vol.
$244,735 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global estimates place M9+ earthquakes at roughly one to three per century on average, reflecting multicentury recurrence intervals along major subduction zones and the absence of any such event since the 2011 Tohoku quake. With only about 18 months remaining until 2027 and 2026 seismicity limited to events below M8, USGS records and paleoseismic data reinforce trader consensus on the low near-term odds. Realistic challenges include an unexpected full-margin rupture on zones such as Cascadia, where time-independent models assign roughly 10-15% probability over 50 years, though current monitoring shows no accelerating precursors that would alter the short-term outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$244,735Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global estimates place M9+ earthquakes at roughly one to three per century on average, reflecting multicentury recurrence intervals along major subduction zones and the absence of any such event since the 2011 Tohoku quake. With only about 18 months remaining until 2027 and 2026 seismicity limited to events below M8, USGS records and paleoseismic data reinforce trader consensus on the low near-term odds. Realistic challenges include an unexpected full-margin rupture on zones such as Cascadia, where time-independent models assign roughly 10-15% probability over 50 years, though current monitoring shows no accelerating precursors that would alter the short-term outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$244,735Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Global estimates place M9+ earthquakes at roughly one to three per century on average, reflecting multicentury recurrence intervals along major subduction zones and the absence of any such event since the 2011 Tohoku quake. With only about 18 months remaining until 2027 and 2026 seismicity limited to events below M8, USGS records and paleoseismic data reinforce trader consensus on the low near-term odds. Realistic challenges include an unexpected full-margin rupture on zones such as Cascadia, where time-independent models assign roughly 10-15% probability over 50 years, though current monitoring shows no accelerating precursors that would alter the short-term outlook.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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