Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) determination that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as no known fault rupture can extend far enough—thousands of kilometers—to release the required energy, with the longest modeled ruptures capping near magnitude 9.6. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia, Chile quake in 1960, and global USGS monitoring through April 2026 shows no seismic activity approaching this scale, with recent significant events topping at magnitude 7.4 near Indonesia. This near-certain "No" at 95.9% underscores inherent geophysical limits, though an undiscovered global-scale fault could theoretically challenge it—unlikely given comprehensive tectonic mapping. Ongoing USGS surveillance provides real-time updates via its Advanced National Seismic System.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato10,0 o superiore prima del 2027?
10,0 o superiore prima del 2027?
Sì
$555,216 Vol.
$555,216 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$555,216 Vol.
$555,216 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) determination that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as no known fault rupture can extend far enough—thousands of kilometers—to release the required energy, with the longest modeled ruptures capping near magnitude 9.6. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia, Chile quake in 1960, and global USGS monitoring through April 2026 shows no seismic activity approaching this scale, with recent significant events topping at magnitude 7.4 near Indonesia. This near-certain "No" at 95.9% underscores inherent geophysical limits, though an undiscovered global-scale fault could theoretically challenge it—unlikely given comprehensive tectonic mapping. Ongoing USGS surveillance provides real-time updates via its Advanced National Seismic System.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$555,216Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) determination that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as no known fault rupture can extend far enough—thousands of kilometers—to release the required energy, with the longest modeled ruptures capping near magnitude 9.6. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia, Chile quake in 1960, and global USGS monitoring through April 2026 shows no seismic activity approaching this scale, with recent significant events topping at magnitude 7.4 near Indonesia. This near-certain "No" at 95.9% underscores inherent geophysical limits, though an undiscovered global-scale fault could theoretically challenge it—unlikely given comprehensive tectonic mapping. Ongoing USGS surveillance provides real-time updates via its Advanced National Seismic System.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$555,216Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) determination that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as no known fault rupture can extend far enough—thousands of kilometers—to release the required energy, with the longest modeled ruptures capping near magnitude 9.6. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia, Chile quake in 1960, and global USGS monitoring through April 2026 shows no seismic activity approaching this scale, with recent significant events topping at magnitude 7.4 near Indonesia. This near-certain "No" at 95.9% underscores inherent geophysical limits, though an undiscovered global-scale fault could theoretically challenge it—unlikely given comprehensive tectonic mapping. Ongoing USGS surveillance provides real-time updates via its Advanced National Seismic System.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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