A developing strong El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 and models projecting further intensification toward 2°C or higher by late summer, serves as the dominant driver elevating trader expectations for August global mean surface temperatures. This Pacific warming, superimposed on a long-term anthropogenic trend near 1.4–1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, favors anomalies in the upper bins around 1.2–1.3°C or above, consistent with June 2026 observations of 1.49°C. Differentiation among closely matched outcomes hinges on the precise timing of El Niño peak influence, potential modulation by positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, and short-term variability in Arctic and land-surface feedbacks. Upcoming August data releases from NOAA and Berkeley Earth will clarify resolution thresholds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAgosto 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
Agosto 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
1,20–1,24ºC 38%
1,10–1,14ºC 37%
1,25–1,29ºC 36%
1,15–1,19ºC 35%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 ago 2026
<1,10ºC
10%
1,10–1,14ºC
37%
1,15–1,19ºC
35%
1,20–1,24ºC
38%
1,25–1,29ºC
36%
>1,29ºC
34%
1,20–1,24ºC 38%
1,10–1,14ºC 37%
1,25–1,29ºC 36%
1,15–1,19ºC 35%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 ago 2026
<1,10ºC
$20 Vol.
10%
1,10–1,14ºC
$0 Vol.
37%
1,15–1,19ºC
$0 Vol.
35%
1,20–1,24ºC
$0 Vol.
38%
1,25–1,29ºC
$0 Vol.
36%
>1,29ºC
$0 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 and models projecting further intensification toward 2°C or higher by late summer, serves as the dominant driver elevating trader expectations for August global mean surface temperatures. This Pacific warming, superimposed on a long-term anthropogenic trend near 1.4–1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, favors anomalies in the upper bins around 1.2–1.3°C or above, consistent with June 2026 observations of 1.49°C. Differentiation among closely matched outcomes hinges on the precise timing of El Niño peak influence, potential modulation by positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, and short-term variability in Arctic and land-surface feedbacks. Upcoming August data releases from NOAA and Berkeley Earth will clarify resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$20Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 and models projecting further intensification toward 2°C or higher by late summer, serves as the dominant driver elevating trader expectations for August global mean surface temperatures. This Pacific warming, superimposed on a long-term anthropogenic trend near 1.4–1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, favors anomalies in the upper bins around 1.2–1.3°C or above, consistent with June 2026 observations of 1.49°C. Differentiation among closely matched outcomes hinges on the precise timing of El Niño peak influence, potential modulation by positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, and short-term variability in Arctic and land-surface feedbacks. Upcoming August data releases from NOAA and Berkeley Earth will clarify resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$20Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A developing strong El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 and models projecting further intensification toward 2°C or higher by late summer, serves as the dominant driver elevating trader expectations for August global mean surface temperatures. This Pacific warming, superimposed on a long-term anthropogenic trend near 1.4–1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, favors anomalies in the upper bins around 1.2–1.3°C or above, consistent with June 2026 observations of 1.49°C. Differentiation among closely matched outcomes hinges on the precise timing of El Niño peak influence, potential modulation by positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, and short-term variability in Arctic and land-surface feedbacks. Upcoming August data releases from NOAA and Berkeley Earth will clarify resolution thresholds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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