NASA's Artemis program timelines have slipped repeatedly due to unresolved technical hurdles with the Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and especially SpaceX's Starship Human Landing System, which still requires extensive uncrewed demonstrations, orbital refueling, and certification flights before supporting crewed operations. With Artemis II completed as a flyby and Artemis III now targeted no earlier than late 2027, no credible pathway exists for a 2026 landing from NASA or international partners. Traders assign 97% probability to "No" based on this established development cadence. While rapid Starship progress or surprise regulatory fast-tracking could theoretically compress schedules, such outcomes contradict current test data and historical slippage patterns in the remaining months of the year.