Seasonal influenza patterns drive the overwhelming 99.1% market-implied probability for a flu hospitalization rate below 0.1 in Week 30, 2026. CDC surveillance data consistently show near-zero activity during summer months in the Northern Hemisphere, with rates typically falling well below this threshold outside the October–May season due to reduced transmission in warmer conditions and lower population susceptibility. Historical weekly reports confirm minimal confirmed cases and hospitalizations in late July, aligning with epidemiological baselines and current monitoring indicators. An atypical summer outbreak or reporting anomaly could theoretically shift outcomes, though such events remain rare given established seasonal dynamics and ongoing surveillance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTasso di ospedalizzazione per influenza Settimana 30, 2026?
Tasso di ospedalizzazione per influenza Settimana 30, 2026?
<0,1 100.0%
0,1 <1%
>0,1 <1%
$2,188 Vol.
$2,188 Vol.
7 ago 2026
<0,1
Sì
0,1
No
>0,1
No
<0,1 100.0%
0,1 <1%
>0,1 <1%
$2,188 Vol.
$2,188 Vol.
7 ago 2026
<0,1
$757 Vol.
Sì
0,1
$802 Vol.
No
>0,1
$629 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Seasonal influenza patterns drive the overwhelming 99.1% market-implied probability for a flu hospitalization rate below 0.1 in Week 30, 2026. CDC surveillance data consistently show near-zero activity during summer months in the Northern Hemisphere, with rates typically falling well below this threshold outside the October–May season due to reduced transmission in warmer conditions and lower population susceptibility. Historical weekly reports confirm minimal confirmed cases and hospitalizations in late July, aligning with epidemiological baselines and current monitoring indicators. An atypical summer outbreak or reporting anomaly could theoretically shift outcomes, though such events remain rare given established seasonal dynamics and ongoing surveillance.
This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Mercato aperto: Jul 31, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$2,188Data di fine
7 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 5:51 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Seasonal influenza patterns drive the overwhelming 99.1% market-implied probability for a flu hospitalization rate below 0.1 in Week 30, 2026. CDC surveillance data consistently show near-zero activity during summer months in the Northern Hemisphere, with rates typically falling well below this threshold outside the October–May season due to reduced transmission in warmer conditions and lower population susceptibility. Historical weekly reports confirm minimal confirmed cases and hospitalizations in late July, aligning with epidemiological baselines and current monitoring indicators. An atypical summer outbreak or reporting anomaly could theoretically shift outcomes, though such events remain rare given established seasonal dynamics and ongoing surveillance.
This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$2,188Data di fine
7 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 5:51 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
Seasonal influenza patterns drive the overwhelming 99.1% market-implied probability for a flu hospitalization rate below 0.1 in Week 30, 2026. CDC surveillance data consistently show near-zero activity during summer months in the Northern Hemisphere, with rates typically falling well below this threshold outside the October–May season due to reduced transmission in warmer conditions and lower population susceptibility. Historical weekly reports confirm minimal confirmed cases and hospitalizations in late July, aligning with epidemiological baselines and current monitoring indicators. An atypical summer outbreak or reporting anomaly could theoretically shift outcomes, though such events remain rare given established seasonal dynamics and ongoing surveillance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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